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What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices?

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  • Soren T. Anderson
  • Ryan Kellogg
  • James M. Sallee

Abstract

A full understanding of how gasoline prices affect consumer behavior frequently requires information on how consumers forecast future gasoline prices. We provide the first evidence on the nature of these forecasts by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We find that average consumer beliefs are typically indistinguishable from a no-change forecast, justifying an assumption commonly made in the literature on consumer valuation of energy efficiency. We also provide evidence on circumstances in which consumer forecasts are likely to deviate from no-change and on significant cross-consumer forecast heterogeneity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16974.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16974

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  1. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & James M. Sallee & Richard T. Curtin, 2011. "Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 110-14, May.
  2. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
  3. Christopher R. Knittel & Ryan Sandler, 2010. "Carbon Prices and Automobile Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Extensive and Intensive Margins," NBER Working Papers 16482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Thomas H. Klier & Joshua Linn, 2008. "New vehicle characteristics and the cost of the corporate average fuel economy standard," Working Paper Series WP-08-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Thomas Klier & Joshua Linn, 2010. "The Price of Gasoline and New Vehicle Fuel Economy: Evidence from Monthly Sales Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 134-53, August.
  6. Shanjun Li & Roger von Haefen & Christopher Timmins, 2008. "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?," NBER Working Papers 14450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bento, Antonio M. & Li, Shanjun & Roth, Kevin, 2012. "Is there an energy paradox in fuel economy? A note on the role of consumer heterogeneity and sorting bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 44-48.
  8. Meghan R. Busse & Christopher R. Knittel & Florian Zettelmeyer, 2009. "Pain at the Pump: The Differential Effect of Gasoline Prices on New and Used Automobile Markets," NBER Working Papers 15590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kahn, James A, 1986. "Gasoline Prices and the Used Automobile Market: A Rational Expectations Asset Price Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 323-39, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Nathan C. Parker, 2011. "Some Inconvenient Truths About Climate Change Policy: The Distributional Impacts of Transportation Policies," NBER Working Papers 17386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hemous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," NBER Working Papers 18596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Klier, Thomas & Linn, Joshua, 2011. "Fuel Prices and New Vehicle Fuel Economy in Europe," Discussion Papers dp-11-37, Resources For the Future.

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