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Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys

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Author Info

  • Soren T. Anderson
  • Ryan Kellogg
  • James M. Sallee
  • Richard T. Curtin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.3.110
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 101 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 110-14

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:110-14

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Cited by:
  1. Chugh, Randy & Cropper, Maureen & Narain, Urvashi, 2011. "The cost of fuel economy in the Indian passenger vehicle market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7174-7183.
  2. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hemous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 102, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  3. Thoenes, Stefan & Gores, Timo, 2012. "Attention, Media and Fuel Efficiency," EWI Working Papers 2012-11, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  4. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & James M. Sallee, 2011. "What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices?," NBER Working Papers 16974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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