IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v44y2014icp222-235.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crude oil moments and PNG stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Chatrath, Arjun
  • Miao, Hong
  • Ramchander, Sanjay

Abstract

We examine the risk-neutral moments of crude oil and their relationship to stock returns in the Petroleum and Natural Gas (PNG) industry. We find substantial overlaps in the association between returns and S&P 500- and crude oil higher moments. Net of these overlaps, PNG stocks share a significant negative relationship with crude volatility and positive relationships with crude skewness and kurtosis. Large cap stocks and those with a history of hedging exhibit negative loadings on crude volatility. However, after controlling for S&P 500- and crude oil returns and their risk-neutral moments, there is little evidence that PNG stocks systematically and significantly price either S&P 500- or crude oil volatility. We document a weak pricing of crude skewness, but find no evidence for the pricing of the implied higher moments of market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2014. "Crude oil moments and PNG stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 222-235.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:222-235
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988314000942
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Britten‐Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, April.
    2. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March.
    3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    4. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-542, May.
    5. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia, 2003. "Delta-Hedged Gains and the Negative Market Volatility Risk Premium," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 527-566.
    6. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Zijun Wang, 2010. "Conditional Coskewness in Stock and Bond Markets: Time-Series Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 2031-2049, November.
    7. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2013. "Time‐Varying Risk–Return Trade‐off in the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 623-650, June.
    8. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    9. Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013. "Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
    10. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    11. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    12. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    13. Kathy Yuan, 2005. "Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crises, Contagion, and Confusion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 379-411, February.
    14. Yanbo Jin & Philippe Jorion, 2006. "Firm Value and Hedging: Evidence from U.S. Oil and Gas Producers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 893-919, April.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    16. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    17. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    18. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    19. James Doran & Ehud Ronn, 2005. "The bias in Black-Scholes/Black implied volatility: An analysis of equity and energy markets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 177-198, December.
    20. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    21. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    22. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    23. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:623-650 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    25. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
    26. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang, 2016. "An examination of the flow characteristics of crude oil: Evidence from risk-neutral moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 213-223.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    2. Elyasiani, Elyas & Gambarelli, Luca & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2020. "Moment risk premia and the cross-section of stock returns in the European stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Dotsis, George, 2017. "The market price of risk of the variance term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 41-52.
    4. Labidi, Chiraz & Yaakoubi, Soumaya, 2016. "Investor sentiment and aggregate volatility pricing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-63.
    5. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang, 2016. "An examination of the flow characteristics of crude oil: Evidence from risk-neutral moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 213-223.
    6. Li, Junye, 2012. "Option-implied volatility factors and the cross-section of market risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 249-260.
    7. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2011. "Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 496-513, June.
    8. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tédongap, 2014. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium, and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-269.
    9. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Yangshu & Tu, Jun, 2017. "International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 183-203.
    10. Turan G. Bali & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Risk, uncertainty, and expected returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Jin-Chuan Duan & Weiqi Zhang, 2014. "Forward-Looking Market Risk Premium," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 521-538, February.
    12. Chen, Ren-Raw & Hsieh, Pei-lin & Huang, Jeffrey, 2018. "Crash risk and risk neutral densities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 162-189.
    13. Siriopoulos, Costas & Fassas, Athanasios, 2012. "An investor sentiment barometer — Greek Implied Volatility Index (GRIV)," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 77-93.
    14. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    15. DeMiguel, Victor & Plyakha, Yuliya & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2013. "Improving Portfolio Selection Using Option-Implied Volatility and Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(6), pages 1813-1845, December.
    16. Bams, Dennis & Blanchard, Gildas & Honarvar, Iman & Lehnert, Thorsten, 2017. "Does oil and gold price uncertainty matter for the stock market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-285.
    17. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    18. Markellos, Raphael N. & Psychoyios, Dimitris, 2018. "Interest rate volatility and risk management: Evidence from CBOE Treasury options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-202.
    19. Chung, Kee H. & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2019. "Volatility and the cross-section of corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 397-417.
    20. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk neutral moments; Crude oil; Petroleum and natural gas; Stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:222-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.