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Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities

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Author Info
Guidolin, Massimo
Timmermann, Allan

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 27 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (March)
Pages: 717-769
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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:27:y:2003:i:5:p:717-769

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bick, Avi, 1990. " On Viable Diffusion Price Processes of the Market Portfolio," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 673-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1763, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  4. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Robert F. Engle, 1997. "Option Hedging Using Empirical Pricing Kernels," NBER Working Papers 6222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:151-89 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. He, Hua & Leland, Hayne, 1993. "On Equilibrium Asset Price Processes," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 593-617. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
  11. Amin, Kaushik I, 1993. " Jump Diffusion Option Valuation in Discrete Time," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1833-63, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Wiggins, James B., 1987. "Option values under stochastic volatility: Theory and empirical estimates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-372, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bossaerts, Peter, 1995. "The Econometrics of Learning in Financial Markets," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 151-189, February. [Downloadable!]
  16. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Stapleton, Richard C & Subrahmanyam, Marti G, 1984. " The Valuation of Options When Asset Returns Are Generated by a Binomial Process," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1525-39, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  22. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. " On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Leland, Hayne E, 1985. " Option Pricing and Replication with Transactions Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1283-1301, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Andrew B. Abel, 1989. "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution In An Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 2621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1999. "Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term Structure Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 211-239, June. [Downloadable!]
  27. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "High equity premia and crash fears. Rational foundations," Working Papers 2005-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in General Equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 279, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in general equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 157, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Silvia Goncalves & Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Predictable dynamics in the S&P 500 index options implied volatility surface," Working Papers 2005-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2005. "Multifrequency News and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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