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A Binomial Model of Asset and Option Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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Abstract

This paper provides a difference-in-opinions equilibrium framework for pricing asset and option in a multi-period binomial economy with heterogeneous beliefs. Agents agree to disagree about their beliefs on the probability and asset return in each state of nature. By constructing a consensus belief, we examine the impact of heterogeneous beliefs on market equilibrium. We show that agents’ wealth shares are expected to remain the same under the consensus belief, although they are expected to increase under their own beliefs. Also large disagreement leads to lower risk premium, while high disagreement on the future return in up state (down state) leads to lower (higher) risk-free rate and expected return for the risky asset. Furthermore, under the consensus belief, the implied volatility of the call options exhibits some observed patterns widely documented in option markets.

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  • Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2016. "A Binomial Model of Asset and Option Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Published Paper Series 2016-4, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:ppaper:2016-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Svetlozar Rachev & Stoyan Stoyanov & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2017. "Behavioral Finance Option Pricing Formulas Consistent with Rational Dynamic Asset Pricing," Papers 1710.03205, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset prices; Heterogeneous beliefs; Binomial trees; Options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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