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Do heterogeneous beliefs diversify market risk?

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  • Carl Chiarella
  • Roberto Dieci
  • Xue-Zhong He

Abstract

It is believed that diversity is good for our society, but is it good for financial markets? In particular, does the diversity with respect to beliefs among investors reduce the market risk of risky assets? The current paper aims to answer this question. Within the standard mean-variance framework, we introduce heterogeneous beliefs not only in risk preferences and expected payoffs but also in variances/covariances. By aggregating heterogeneous beliefs into a market consensus belief, we obtain capital asset pricing model-like equilibrium price and return relationships under heterogeneous beliefs. We show that the market aggregate behaviour is in principle a weighted average of heterogeneous individual behaviours. The impact of heterogeneity on the market equilibrium price and risk premium is examined in general. In particular, we give a positive answer to the question in the title by considering some special structure in heterogeneous beliefs. In addition, we provide an explanation of Miller's long-standing hypothesis on the relation between a stock's risk and the divergence of opinions.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2011. "Do heterogeneous beliefs diversify market risk?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 241-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:241-258
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2010.481457
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Qi Nan Zhai, 2015. "Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity and Heterogeneity," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 16, July-Dece.
    2. Drabik, Dusan & de Gorter, Harry & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2016. "Producing biodiesel from soybeans in Zambia: An economic analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-109.
    3. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2012. "Disagreement in a Multi-Asset Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 357-373, September.
    4. Lei Shi, 2010. "Portfolio Analysis and Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 9, July-Dece.
    5. Xue-Zhong He, 2012. "Recent Developments on Heterogeneous Beliefs and Adaptive Behaviour of Financial Markets," Research Paper Series 316, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2012. "Disagreement, correlation and asset prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 512-515.
    7. Alexander Zimper, 2023. "Belief aggregation for representative agent models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 19(2), pages 309-342, June.
    8. Lei Shi, 2010. "Portfolio Analysis and Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2010.
    9. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He & Kai Li, 2013. "An evolutionary CAPM under heterogeneous beliefs," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 185-215, May.
    10. Qi Nan Zhai, 2015. "Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity and Heterogeneity," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2015.
    11. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2020. "Mean-variance analysis and the Modified Market Portfolio," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    12. Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2018. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Finance," Research Paper Series 389, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2013. "Time-varying beta: a boundedly rational equilibrium approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 609-639, July.
    14. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2010. "Differences in Opinion and Risk Premium," Research Paper Series 271, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. Chauveau, Th. & Subbotin, A., 2013. "Price dynamics in a market with heterogeneous investment horizons and boundedly rational traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1040-1065.
    16. Kai Li, 2014. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Time Delays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 13, July-Dece.
    17. Kai Li, 2014. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Time Delays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2014.
    18. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2016. "A Binomial Model of Asset and Option Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Published Paper Series 2016-4, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    19. P. Simmons & N. Tantisantiwong, 2014. "Equilibrium moment restrictions on asset returns: normal and crisis periods," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1064-1089, November.

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