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If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets

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Author Info
Lawrence Blume
David Easley

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Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of the asymptotic properties of consumption allocations in a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers. In particular we investigate the market selection hypothesis, that markets favor traders with more accurate beliefs. We show that in any Pareto optimal allocation whether each consumer vanishes or survives is determined entirely by discount factors and beliefs. Since equilibrium allocations in economies with complete markets are Pareto optimal, our results characterize the limit behavior of these economies. We show that, all else equal, the market selects for consumers who use Bayesian learning with the truth in the support of their prior and selects among Bayesians according to the size of their parameter space. Finally, we show that in economies with incomplete markets these conclusions may not hold. Payoff functions can matter for long run survival, and the market selection hypothesis fails.

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Paper provided by Santa Fe Institute in its series Working Papers with number 01-06-031.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:01-06-031

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Keywords: Beliefs; market selection hypothesis;

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  1. Blume, L. E. & Bray, M. M. & Easley, D., 1982. "Introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 313-317, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lensberg, Terje & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2006. "On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule – A Darwinian Approach," Discussion Papers 2006/23, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Igor Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2003. "Evolutionary Stable Stock Markets," Discussion Papers 03-39, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Pablo F. Beker & Subir Chattopadhyay, 2006. "Economic Survival When Markets Are Incomplete," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-19, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. James Dow & Gary Gorton, 2006. "Noise Traders," NBER Working Papers 12256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Spyros Skouras, 2001. "Decisionmetrics: A Decision-Based Approach to Econometric Modeling," Working Papers 01-11-064, Santa Fe Institute.
    Other versions:
  6. AMIR, Rabah & EVSTIGNEEV, Igor & HENS, Thorsten & SCHENK-HOPPƒ, Klaus Reiner, 2003. "Market selection and survival of investment strategies," CORE Discussion Papers 2003099, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Pablo F Beker & Emilio Espino, 2007. "The Dynamics of Efficient Asset Trading with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001715, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Leonid Kogan & Stephen Ross & Jiang Wang & Mark Westerfield, 2003. "The Price Impact and Survival of Irrational Traders," NBER Working Papers 9434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Tarek Coury & Emanuela Sciubba, 2006. "Belief Heterogeneity and Survival in Incomplete Markets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0613, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Franklin Allen, 2001. "Do Financial Institutions Matter?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-04, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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