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Belief Heterogeneity and Survival in Incomplete Markets

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Author Info
Tarek Coury
Emanuela Sciubba (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

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Abstract

In complete markets economies (Sandroni [15]), or in economies with Pareto optimal outcomes (Blume and Easley [9]), the market selection hypothesis holds, as long as traders have identical discount factors. Traders who survive must have beliefs that merge with the truth. We show that in incomplete markets, regardless of traders’ discount factors, the market selects for a range of beliefs, at least some of which do not merge with the truth. We also show that impatient traders with incorrect beliefs can survive and that these incorrect beliefs impact prices. These beliefs may be chosen so that they are far from the truth.

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File URL: http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0613.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 0613.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0613

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Related research
Keywords: Incomplete markets; market selection hypothesis; belief selection;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Biais, Bruno & Shadur, Raphael, 2000. "Darwinian selection does not eliminate irrational traders," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 469-490, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bewley, Truman F., 1972. "Existence of equilibria in economies with infinitely many commodities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 514-540, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Larry Blume & David Easley, 2001. "If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1319, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 1994. "Infinite Horizon Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 853-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pablo F. Beker & Subir Chattopadhyay, 2006. "Economic Survival When Markets Are Incomplete," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-19, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.

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