Volatility And Spill Over Effects In Indian Commodity Markets: A Case Of Pepper
AbstractModeling of volatility has been felt one of the major academic contributions in Indian commodity futures market. We have selected black pepper as a commodity for estimating volatility and its spillover incorporating a series of models. We have employed models with their specifications, namely, GARCH (2, 2), EGARCH (2,2), EGARCH (3,3), CGARCH (1,1), MGARCH (Diagonal VECH and BEKK) for both the spot and futures return-series of the commodity. Study reveals that bidirectional spillover is captured under GARCH (2, 2) model whereas unidirectional spillover is found under EGARCH (2, 2) model and results obtained through EGARCH (3,3) are not impressive. News impact curve depicts the steeper movement on the logarithmic conditional variance of futures and spot-return series due to ‘positive shocks’ and rather than to ‘negative shock’. Conditional correlation is also found dynamic and the correlation between spot and futures returns of pepper changes temporally.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences in its journal Studies in Business and Economics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
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Postal: Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences Dumbravii Avenue, No 17, postal code 550324, Sibiu, Romania
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volatility; spillover; asymmetric effect; news impact;
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