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Volatility And Spill Over Effects In Indian Commodity Markets: A Case Of Pepper

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Author Info

  • Maitra Debasish

    (Institute of Rural Management Anand, India)

  • Dey Kushankur

    (T. A. Pai Management Institute, India)

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    Abstract

    Modeling of volatility has been felt one of the major academic contributions in Indian commodity futures market. We have selected black pepper as a commodity for estimating volatility and its spillover incorporating a series of models. We have employed models with their specifications, namely, GARCH (2, 2), EGARCH (2,2), EGARCH (3,3), CGARCH (1,1), MGARCH (Diagonal VECH and BEKK) for both the spot and futures return-series of the commodity. Study reveals that bidirectional spillover is captured under GARCH (2, 2) model whereas unidirectional spillover is found under EGARCH (2, 2) model and results obtained through EGARCH (3,3) are not impressive. News impact curve depicts the steeper movement on the logarithmic conditional variance of futures and spot-return series due to ‘positive shocks’ and rather than to ‘negative shock’. Conditional correlation is also found dynamic and the correlation between spot and futures returns of pepper changes temporally.

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    File URL: http://eccsf.ulbsibiu.ro/RePEc/blg/journl/639maitra&dey.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences in its journal Studies in Business and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (December)
    Pages: 119-145

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    Handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:6:y:2011:i:3:p:119-145

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    Postal: Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences Dumbravii Avenue, No.17, postal code 550324, Sibiu, Romania
    Phone: 004 0269 210375
    Fax: 004 0269 210375
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    Web page: http://economice.ulbsibiu.ro/
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    Related research

    Keywords: volatility; spillover; asymmetric effect; news impact;

    References

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    1. Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
    2. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    3. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
    4. Baele, L., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Discussion Paper 2003-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    7. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    9. Brooks,Chris, 2008. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521694681, December.
    10. Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1990. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
    12. Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
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