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Indicators and Tests of Sustainability: The Italian Case

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  • Matteo Formenti

    ()
    (Università di Roma "Tor Vergata")

Abstract

The issue of sustainability of Italian fiscal policy in the period 1970-2006 is studied with two instruments: indicators and tests. The indicators Primary Gap, Tax Gap developed by Chouraqui et al. (1990) and S2 by the European Commission show a nonsustainable fiscal policy. Tests of sustainability following Trehan and Walsh (1988), Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Bohn (2008) show an opposite result accepting the sustainability path of fiscal variables. According to the strategy proposed by De Luzenberger and Marini (1993) a Chow-type test, that confirms a systematic change of fiscal policy in 1992-1993, permits to discern the two conflicting results in favour of the indicators’ response.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by SIPI Spa in its journal Rivista di Politica Economica.

Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (November-December)
Pages: 123-160

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Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:98:y:2008:i:6:p:123-160

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Related research

Keywords: fiscal sustainability; fiscal indicators and tests of sustainability; Chow test;

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References

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  1. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
  2. Bohn, H., 1990. "The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy," Weiss Center Working Papers 6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  3. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  5. Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 1996. "Debt and deficit ceilings, and sustainability of fiscal policies: an intertemporal analysis," Research Paper 9615, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  7. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
  8. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, October.
  9. Chalk, Nigel A., 2000. "The sustainability of bond-financed deficits: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 293-328, April.
  10. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Ihori, Toshihiro, 1978. "The Golden Rule and the Role of Government in a Life Cycle Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 389-96, June.
  13. Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G. & Roubini, N., 1992. "Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsence in the Treaty of Maastricht," Papers 674, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  14. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-27, March.
  15. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
  16. Jean-Claude Chouraqui & Robert P. Hagemann & Nicola Sartor, 1990. "Indicators of Fiscal Policy: A Re-Examination," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 78, OECD Publishing.
  17. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  18. Seater, John J. & Mariano, Roberto S., 1985. "New tests of the life cycle and tax discounting hypotheses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 195-215, March.
  19. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mariolis, Theodore & Papoulis, Κostas, 2010. "Δυναμική Του Χρέους, ‘Δίδυμα Ελλείμματα’ Και Διεθνής Ανταγωνιστικότητα Της Ελληνικής Οικονομίας
    [Debt dynamics,
    ," MPRA Paper 23173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Mariolis, Theodore & Papoulis, Κostas, 2010. "Δυναμική Του Δημοσίου Χρέους, Οικονομική Πολιτική Και Κοινωνική Συνοχή Στην Ελλάδα: Μία Σημείωση
    [Public debt dynam
    ," MPRA Paper 28551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Pica, Federico & Villani, Salvatore, 2012. "Debito, Mezzogiorno e sviluppo. A trivial exercise
    [Sovereign Debt Sustainability, Mezzogiorno and Economic Growth. A Trivial Exercise]
    ," MPRA Paper 43199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Nov 2012.

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