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Indicators and Tests of Sustainability: The Italian Case

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  • Matteo Formenti

    (Università di Roma "Tor Vergata")

Abstract

The issue of sustainability of Italian fiscal policy in the period 1970-2006 is studied with two instruments: indicators and tests. The indicators Primary Gap, Tax Gap developed by Chouraqui et al. (1990) and S2 by the European Commission show a nonsustainable fiscal policy. Tests of sustainability following Trehan and Walsh (1988), Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Bohn (2008) show an opposite result accepting the sustainability path of fiscal variables. According to the strategy proposed by De Luzenberger and Marini (1993) a Chow-type test, that confirms a systematic change of fiscal policy in 1992-1993, permits to discern the two conflicting results in favour of the indicators’ response.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Formenti, 2008. "Indicators and Tests of Sustainability: The Italian Case," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 98(6), pages 123-160, November-.
    • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:98:y:2008:i:6:p:123-160
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    1. Mariolis, Theodore & Papoulis, Κostas, 2010. "Δυναμική Του Δημοσίου Χρέους, Οικονομική Πολιτική Και Κοινωνική Συνοχή Στην Ελλάδα: Μία Σημείωση [Public debt dynamics, economic policy and social cohesion in Greece: a note]," MPRA Paper 28551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mariolis, Theodore & Papoulis, Κostas, 2010. "Δυναμική Του Χρέους, ‘Δίδυμα Ελλείμματα’ Και Διεθνής Ανταγωνιστικότητα Της Ελληνικής Οικονομίας [Debt dynamics, ‘twin deficits’ and international competitiveness of the Greek economy]," MPRA Paper 23173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pica, Federico & Villani, Salvatore, 2012. "Debito, Mezzogiorno e sviluppo. A trivial exercise [Sovereign Debt Sustainability, Mezzogiorno and Economic Growth. A Trivial Exercise]," MPRA Paper 43199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Nov 2012.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal sustainability; fiscal indicators and tests of sustainability; Chow test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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