Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dong He
  • Laurent L. Pauwels

Abstract

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People's Bank of China (PBC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC's implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC's policy changes. Copyright (c) 2008 The Hong Kong Monetary Authority Journal compilation (c) 2008 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00134.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in its journal China & World Economy.

Volume (Year): 16 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1-21

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:16:y:2008:i:6:p:1-21

Contact details of provider:
Postal: No. 5 Jian Guo Men Nei Street, Beijing 100732
Phone: (0086-10) 65126105
Fax: (0086-10) 65126105
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1671-2234
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1671-2234

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  2. Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 1999. "Nonstationary Binary Choice," Working Paper Series no5, Institute of Economic Research, Seoul National University.
  3. Hu, Ling & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2004. "Nonstationary discrete choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 103-138, May.
  4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  5. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2007. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(1), pages 2-41, March.
  6. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
  7. Oscar Jorda & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "A model for the federal funds rate target," Working Papers 997, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  8. Bernard Laurens & Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  11. Geiger, Michael, 2006. "Monetary Policy in China (1994-2004) : Targets, Instruments and their Effectiveness," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 68, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  12. Michael Dueker, 1999. "Measuring monetary policy inertia in target Fed funds rate changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 3-10.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Dong He & Honglin Wang, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in China - Evidence from Loan-Level Data," Working Papers 162013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Xiong , Qiyue, 2013. "The role of the bank lending channel and impacts of stricter capital requirements on the Chinese banking industry," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
  5. He, Dong & Wang, Honglin, 2011. "Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Chang Shu & Dong He & Xiaoqiang Cheng, 2014. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi’s growing influence in Asia-Pacific," BIS Working Papers 446, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Dong He & Paul Luk, 2013. "A Model of Chinese Capital Account Liberalisation," Working Papers 122013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Körner, Finn Marten & Ehnts, Dirk H., 2013. "Chinese monetary policy – from theory to practice," MPRA Paper 44264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Dong He & Honglin Wang & Xiangrong Yu, 2014. "Interest Rate Determination in China: Past, Present, and Future," Working Papers 042014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  10. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:16:y:2008:i:6:p:1-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.