Measuring monetary policy inertia in target Fed funds rate changes
AbstractRecent research has grappled with an apparent paradox: Why would a central bank that is focused primarily on inflation control exhibit signs of inertia when making policy adjustments? In this article, Michael Dueker argues that fully characterizing the policy inertia is a precondition towards resolving the apparent paradox. This article presents empirical estimates of adjustments to the target fed funds rate that take into account two facets of policy inertia: a partial-adjustment mechanism and thresholds for making discrete changes to the target fed funds rate. With a more complete picture of the policy inertia, subsequent research can investigate whether policy appears to display either too much or the right amount of inertia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.
Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995.
"Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brian Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chan G. Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- George Monokroussos, 2011.
"Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 519-534, 03.
- George Monokroussos, 2006. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 06-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- George Monokroussos, 2005. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and US Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 460, Society for Computational Economics.
- George Monokroussos, 2009.
"A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series,"
09-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- George Monokroussos, 2013. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 71-105, June.
- Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011.
"Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
- Huefner, Felix P & Friedrich Heinemann, 2003.
"Is the View from the Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence and ECB Interest Rate Policy,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
110, Royal Economic Society.
- Friedrich Heinemann & Felix P. Huefner, 2004. "Is The View From The Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence And Ecb Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 544-558, 09.
- Heinemann, Friedrich & Huefner, Felix P., 2002. "Is the View from the Eurotower Purely European? National Divergence and ECB Interest Rate Policy," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-69, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Adrienne Kearney & Raymond Lombra, 2003. "Fed funds futures and the news," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 330-337, December.
- Ullrich, Katrin, 2006. "An impact of country-specific economic developments on ECB decisions," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-49, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.
- Dong He & Laurent Pauwels, 2008.
"What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model,"
0806, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Dong He & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21.
- Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
- Isela Elizabeth Téllez León & Francisco Venegas Martínez, 2013. "Principales determinantes en las decisiones de política monetaria de México: un análisis econométrico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 28(1), pages 79-108.
- George Monokroussos, 2006. "A Dynamic Tobit Model for the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 390, Society for Computational Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.