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Interest rate smoothing in New Zealand and other dollar bloc countries

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Abstract

This paper utilises the partial adjustment approach of Judd and Rudebusch (1998) to empirically estimate the degree of short-term interest rate smoothing by central banks in the dollar block countries. All countries appear to smooth short-term interest rates significantly, with New Zealand and Canada smoothing rates by less than what appears to be the case for Australia and the United States. We then examine the macroeconomic implications of interest rate smoothing using the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's macro model. The model is constructed such that the more interest rates are smoothed in the short-term, the larger inflation and output variability will be over the cycle. However, at least over the narrow range of the empirically based smoothing approaches, the results suggest that there may be little cost in smoothing short-term interest rates in New Zealand to the degree seen in Australia or the United States.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2000/dp00_10.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2000/10.

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Length: 30p
Date of creation: Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2000/10

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  1. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  2. Brian Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Kelly R Eckhold, 1998. "Determinants of New Zealand bond yields," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: stochastic simulations of the core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Brian Sack, 1998. "Uncertainty, learning, and gradual monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  8. Brian Sack & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Paul Conway & Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt & Alasdair Scott, 1998. "Exchange rate effects and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a stochastic analysis using FPS," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/4, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Marvin Goodfriend, 1990. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  12. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2004. "The Optimal Design of Interest Rate Target Changes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 115-37, February.
  13. Aaron Drew & Benjamin Hunt, 1999. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  14. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316.
  15. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 10280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Weshah Razzak, 2014. "New Zealand Labour Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/03, New Zealand Treasury.
  3. Robert N McCauley, 2001. "Setting Monetary Policy in East Asia: Goals, Developments and Institutions," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.), Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Özer Karagedikli & Kirdan Lees, 2004. "Do inflation targeting central banks behave asymmetrically? Evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Drew, Aaron & Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John & Clair, Robert St., 2004. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 949-964, December.
  6. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.
  7. Özer Karagedikli & Rishab Sethi & Christie Smith & Aaron Drew, 2008. "Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  9. W A Razzak, 2001. "Money in the era of inflation targeting," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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