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Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?

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Author Info

  • Drew, Aaron
  • Hall, Viv B.
  • McDermott, C. John
  • Clair, Robert St.

Abstract

Counterfactual experiments with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core model provide some insight into the implications for New Zealand's economic performance over the 1990s, had it credibly fixed its currency to the Australian dollar. If New Zealand had faced the relatively more stimulatory Australian monetary conditions prevailing over the 1990s, then output growth may have been temporarily boosted. However, demand pressures would have probably been greater and inflation higher. In particular, results suggest that over the latter part of the 1990s annual inflation would have been around 1 percentage point higher on average. Stochastic simulation experiments provide a vehicle to analyse what the implications of currency union might be more generally. Results suggest that if New Zealand were to lose its ability to set monetary policy independently, then the variability of inflation and output would increase over the business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 21 (2004)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 949-964

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:21:y:2004:i:6:p:949-964

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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References

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  1. Nils Bjorksten, 2001. "The current state of New Zealand monetary union research," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, December.
  2. A.M.G Coleman & Bob Buckle & A.Grimes, 1989. "Economic notes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 52, june.
  3. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
  4. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  5. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June.
  6. Aaron Drew & Benjamin Hunt, 1999. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  7. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: stochastic simulations of the core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Viv Hall & Angela Huang, 2003. "Would Adopting the US Dollar Have Led to Improved Inflation, Output and Trade Balances for New Zealand in the 1990s?," Working Papers 03_14, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  9. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  10. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  11. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  12. Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  13. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
  14. Dean Scrimgeour, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and Currency Union: Some theory and New Zealand evidence," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  15. Sharon McCaw & C John McDermott, 2000. "How New Zealand adjusts to macroeconomic shocks: implications for joining a currency area," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March.
  16. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April.
  17. Aaron Drew & L Christopher Plantier, 2000. "Interest rate smoothing in New Zealand and other dollar bloc countries," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  18. Andrew Coleman, 1999. "Economic Integration and Monetary Union," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/06, New Zealand Treasury.
  19. Viv Hall & Kunhong Kim & Robert Buckle, 1998. "Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-159.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 327-349.
  2. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2008. "An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency," CAMA Working Papers 2008-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Nils Bjorksten, 2001. "The current state of New Zealand monetary union research," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, December.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 12620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Drew, Aaron & Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John & Clair, Robert St., 2004. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 949-964, December.
  6. Viv Hall & Angela Huang, 2003. "Would Adopting the US Dollar Have Led to Improved Inflation, Output and Trade Balances for New Zealand in the 1990s?," Working Papers 03_14, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  7. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
  8. Viv B. Hall, 2005. "An Australasian Currency, New Zealand Adopting The Us Dollar, Or An Independent Monetary Policy?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Nils Björksten & Arthur Grimes & Özer Karagedikli & Christopher Plantier, 2004. "What can the Taylor rule tell us about a currency union between New Zealand and Australia?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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