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Money-Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions

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  • Nathan Porter

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • TengTeng Xu

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields) and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization. This paper investigates the main drivers of China’s interbank rates by developing a stylized theoretical model of China’s interbank market and estimating an EGARCH model for seven-day interbank repo rates. Our empirical findings suggest that movements in administered interest rates (part of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy toolkit) are important determinants of market-determined interbank rates, in both levels and volatility. The announcement effects of reserve requirement changes also influence interbank rates, as well as liquidity injections from open-market operations in recent years. Our results indicate that the regulation of key retail interest rates influences the behavior of market-determined interbank rates, which may have limited their independence as price signals. Further deposit rate liberalization should allow short-term interbank rates to play a more effective role as the primary indirect monetary policy tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Porter & TengTeng Xu, 2016. "Money-Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 143-198, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2016:q:1:a:5
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    Cited by:

    1. Sheheryar Malik & Ms. TengTeng Xu, 2017. "Interconnectedness of Global Systemically-Important Banks and Insurers," IMF Working Papers 2017/210, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Liu Kerry, 2019. "Some Preliminary Evidence on China’s New Monetary Policy Tool: The Standing Lending Facility," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(2), pages 137-155, August.
    3. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.
    4. Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Predicting China’s Monetary Policy with Forecast Combinations," Working Papers BAWP-2019-07, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    5. Yuyan Tan & Yang Ji & Yiping Huang, 2016. "Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 1-22, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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