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Regime Shifts and Volatility Spillovers on International Stock Markets

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  • Hassler, J.

Abstract

A standard capital asset pricing model is extended to allow for stochastic shifts in the volatility of the news process. This model is then estimated on bivariate stock market data to separate two exogenous news processes – a world and a domestic. The results indicate that the influence of the world news process on the Swedish stock market has increased significantly over the period 1970-1995. I also find that the foreign influence is much stronger when the volatility of the world news process is high. Furthermore, when the world state shifts to high risk, the Swedish stock market immediately reacts by a large fall, estimated to 7.0%. The bivariate model is also estimated on a set of other national stock markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stockholm - International Economic Studies in its series Papers with number 603.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:stocin:603

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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.
Phone: +46-8-162000
Fax: +46-8-161443
Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
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Keywords: STOCK MARKET; EXTERNALITIES; INTERNATIONAL FINANCE; FINANCIAL MARKET ; SWEDEN;

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References

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
  2. John Hassler, . "Risk and Consumption," Homapage Papers _001, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  4. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
  5. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  7. Romer, Christina D, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624, August.
  8. Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Volatility and shocks spillover before and after EMU in European stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 323-340, December.
  2. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence in stock markets: Have they been misdiagnosed?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 405-426.
  3. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Favero, Carlo A., 2005. "Explaining co-movements between stock markets: The case of US and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1299-1316, December.
  4. Oetzel, Jennifer M. & Bettis, Richard A. & Zenner, Marc, 2001. "Country risk measures: how risky are they?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 128-145, July.

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