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The real exchange rate and real interest differentials: the role of nonlinearities

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  • Nelson C. Mark

    (University of Notre Dame and NBER, USA)

  • Young-Kyu Moh

    (Tulane University, USA)

Abstract

Recent empirical work has shown the importance of nonlinear adjustment in the dynamics of real exchange rates and real interest differentials. This work suggests that the tenuous empirical linkage between the real exchange rate and the real interest differential might be strengthened by explicitly accounting for these nonlinearities. We pursue this strategy by pricing the real exchange rate by real interest parity. The resulting first-order stochastic difference equation gives the real exchange rate as the expected present value of future real interest differentials which we compute numerically for three candidate nonlinear processes. Regressions of the log real US dollar prices of the Canadian dollar, deutschemark, yen and pound on the fundamental values implied by these nonlinear models are used to evaluate the linkage. The evidence for linkage is stronger when these present values are computed over shorter horizons than for longer horizons. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson C. Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2005. "The real exchange rate and real interest differentials: the role of nonlinearities," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 323-335.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:10:y:2005:i:4:p:323-335
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.279
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    2. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2021. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Further evidence based on asymmetric causality test," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 67-84.
    3. Tatsuma Wada, 2012. "The Real Exchange Rate And Real Interest Differentials: The Role Of The Trend-Cycle Decomposition," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 968-987, October.
    4. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Dinçer Afat & Michael Frömmel, 2020. "An Alternative Version of Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 511-517, October.
    6. Chi‐Wei Su & Hsu‐Ling Chang & Yan Liu, 2013. "Real Interest Rate Parity and Two Structural Breaks: African Countries Evidence," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 478-484, December.
    7. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.
    8. Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Liu, Lin, 2012. "Real interest rate parity with Flexible Fourier stationary test for Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2719-2723.
    9. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2009. "Further evidence on the Real Interest Rate Parity hypothesis in Central and Eastern European Countries: unit roots and nonlinearities," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/1, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    10. Juha Junttila & Marko Korhonen, 2013. "Stock market information and the relationship between real exchange rate and real interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(11), pages 901-920, June.
    11. Wen Zhang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su, 2014. "Do real interest rates converge across Latin american countries?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(2), pages 117-130, August.
    12. Liu, Yan & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Do real interest rates converge across East Asian countries based on China?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 467-473.
    13. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.

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