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Mixed Signals in Defending the Exchange Rate: What do the Data Say?

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  • Drazen, Allan
  • Hubrich, Stefan
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    Abstract

    High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of future exchange rates, and risk premia. While much previous empirical work has been inconclusive due to offsetting effects, tests that ‘disaggregate’ the effects provide significant information. Raising overnight interest rates strengthens the exchange rate over the short-term, but also leads to an expected depreciation at a horizon of a year and longer and an increase in the risk premium, consistent with the argument that it also signals weak fundamentals.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4050.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4050

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    Related research

    Keywords: currency crises; interest rate defense; signalling; speculative attacks;

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    References

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    1. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 99/42, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Flood, Robert P & Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defence of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 297-321, March.
    4. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    5. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 1999. "Interest rate stabilization of exchange rates and contagion in the Asian crisis countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    6. Paul R. Masson & Allan Drazen, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," IMF Working Papers 94/49, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Drazen, Allan, 2000. "Interest-rate and borrowing defense against speculative attack," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 303-348, December.
    8. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
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    Cited by:
    1. Tullio Gregori, 2009. "Currency crisis duration and interest defence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 256-267.
    2. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Makarand Parulkar, 2006. "Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a in a financially vulnerable Emerging Economy," Working Papers id:354, eSocialSciences.
    3. Pathak, Parag & Tirole, Jean, 2006. "Speculative Attacks and Risk Management," IDEI Working Papers 438, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    4. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "Managing New-Style Currency Crises : The Swan Diagram Approach Revisited," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22574, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Nelson C. Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2005. "The real exchange rate and real interest differentials: the role of nonlinearities," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 323-335.
    6. Gottlieb, Daniel & Moreira, Humberto Ataíde & Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de, 2004. "A model of mixed signals with applications to countersignaling an the GED," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 553, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

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