Mixed Signals in Defending the Exchange Rate: What do the Data Say?
AbstractHigh interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of future exchange rates, and risk premia. While much previous empirical work has been inconclusive due to offsetting effects, tests that ‘disaggregate’ the effects provide significant information. Raising overnight interest rates strengthens the exchange rate over the short-term, but also leads to an expected depreciation at a horizon of a year and longer and an increase in the risk premium, consistent with the argument that it also signals weak fundamentals.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4050.
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kraay, Aart, 2000.
"Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks ?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2267, The World Bank.
- Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 297-321, March.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005.
"An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
- Flood, Robert P & Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defence of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Jeanne & Robert P. Flood, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 00/159, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 1999. "Interest rate stabilization of exchange rates and contagion in the Asian crisis countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999.
"Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?,"
IMF Working Papers
99/42, International Monetary Fund.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 5.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does monetary policy stabilize the exchange rate following a currency crisis?," Textos para discussÃ£o 396, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Drazen, Allan, 2000. "Interest-rate and borrowing defense against speculative attack," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 303-348, December.
- Paul R. Masson & Allan Drazen, 1994.
"Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers,"
IMF Working Papers
94/49, International Monetary Fund.
- Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August.
- Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1993. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," NBER Working Papers 4448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
- Pathak, Parag & Tirole, Jean, 2006. "Speculative Attacks and Risk Management," IDEI Working Papers 438, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007.
"Managing new-style currency crises: the swan diagram approach revisited,"
Journal of International Development,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 583-606.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Managing New-Style Currency Crises: The Swan Diagram Approach Revisited," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0517, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "Managing New-Style Currency Crises : The Swan Diagram Approach Revisited," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22574, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Tullio Gregori, 2009. "Currency crisis duration and interest defence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 256-267.
- Gottlieb, Daniel & Moreira, Humberto Ataíde & Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de, 2004. "A model of mixed signals with applications to countersignaling an the GED," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 553, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Nelson C. Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2005. "The real exchange rate and real interest differentials: the role of nonlinearities," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 323-335.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan & Makarand Parulkar, 2006. "Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a in a financially vulnerable Emerging Economy," Working Papers id:354, eSocialSciences.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.