IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/54975.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing fiscal sustainability in some selected countries

Author

Listed:
  • Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the sustainability of fiscal policy in 18 developing and emerging countries, using the recursive algorithm developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003). In general, the results suggest that most countries were identified as presenting large unsustainable fiscal positions in the period considered, explained basically by primary fiscal deficits. Interestingly, results for Panama suggest no evidence that officially dollarized countries run more prudent fiscal policies than non-officially dollarized countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2014. "Assessing fiscal sustainability in some selected countries," MPRA Paper 54975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54975
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54975/1/MPRA_paper_54975.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Jocelyn Horne, 1991. "Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 1991/005, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    4. Díaz Alvarado, Carlos & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1536, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 2013/089, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 2005/226, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2009. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 133-173, July-Dece.
    8. Nina Budina & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2008. "Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 23(1), pages 119-140, November.
    9. Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "Fiscal policy in developing countries : a framework and some questions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4365, The World Bank.
    10. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    11. Edwards, Sebastian, 2001. "Dollarization: Myths and realities," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 249-265, April.
    12. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    13. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Nathaniel Frank & Eduardo Ley, 2009. "On the Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Sustainability: Structural Breaks and Non-Normality," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 742-757, November.
    15. Humberto Mora, 2004. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability with Alternative Methodologies," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(46-1), pages 82-145, December.
    16. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," NBER Working Papers 12586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mr. Enzo Croce & Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 2003/145, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Humberto Mora, 2004. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability with Alternative Methodologies," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(46-1), pages 82-145, December.
    20. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2003. "Sudden Stops and Exchange Rate Strategies in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4327, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2013. "La END, el plan nacional plurianual del sector público y la sostenibilidad fiscal en la República Dominicana [The Dominican National Development Strategy (END), the National Multi-Year Public Secto," MPRA Paper 49376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 2013/089, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
    4. Huixin Bi & Ms. Wenyi Shen & Ms. Susan S. Yang, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/049, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. E. H. Gardner & Mr. Julian Di Giovanni, 2008. "A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 2008/097, International Monetary Fund.
    6. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    7. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    8. Lankester-Campos, Valerie & Loaiza-Marín, Kerry & Monge-Badilla, Carlos, 2020. "Assessing public debt sustainability for Costa Rica using the fiscal reaction function," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    9. Goswami , Gour Gobinda & Hossain, Mohammad Mashnun, 2013. "From Judgmental Projection to Time Series Forecast: Does it Alter the Debt Sustainability Analysis of Bangladesh?," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 36(3), pages 1-41, September.
    10. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," Research Department Publications 4371, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability in Emerging Markets: A Critical Appraisal," Working Papers 61, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    12. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Issouf Samaké, 2006. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2006/295, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Debrun, Xavier & Willems, Tim & Wyplosz, Charles, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Mr. Kevin J Carey, 2005. "The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output," IMF Working Papers 2005/207, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2009. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 133-173, July-Dece.
    16. Canofari, Paolo & Marini, Giancarlo & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2020. "Financial Crisis and Sustainability of US Fiscal Deficit: Indicators or Tests?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 192-204.
    17. Togan Eğrican, Aslı & Caner, Selçuk & Togan, Sübidey, 2022. "Reforming public debt governance in Turkey to reach debt sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1057-1076.
    18. Stoian, Andreea & Alves, Rui Henrique, 2014. "High public debt in the euro area: still a fact," MPRA Paper 63679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Canofari, Paolo & Piergallini, Alessandro & Piersanti, Giovanni, 2020. "The Fallacy Of Fiscal Discipline," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 55-68, January.
    20. Paunovic, Igor, 2005. "Public debt sustainability in the northern countries of Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; deficit; fiscal sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54975. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.