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Regime Switching Determinants of Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Umurcan Polat

    (Marmara University, Turkey)

Abstract

In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Umurcan Polat, 2017. "Regime Switching Determinants of Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from Turkey," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 124-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:ejn:ejefjr:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:124-141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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