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Estimating TFP in the Presence of Outliers and Leverage Points: An Examination of the KLEMS Dataset

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  • Macdonald, Ryan

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of aberrant observations in the Capital, Labour, Energy, Materials and Services (KLEMS) database and a method for dealing with them. The level of disaggregation, data construction and economic shocks all potentially lead to aberrant observations that can influence estimates and inference if care is not exercised. Commonly applied pre-tests, such as the augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Kwaitkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin tests, need to be used with caution in this environment because they are sensitive to unusual data points. Moreover, widely known methods for generating statistical estimates, such as Ordinary Least Squares, may not work well when confronted with aberrant observations. To address this, a robust method for estimating statistical relationships is illustrated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch in its series Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series with number 2007047e.

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Date of creation: 05 Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:stc:stcp5e:2007047e

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Keywords: Data analysis; Economic accounts; Productivity accounts; Statistical methods; Time series;

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  1. Kevin J. Stiroh & Dale W. Jorgenson, 2000. "U.S. Economic Growth at the Industry Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 161-167, May.
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  3. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1991. "Large shocks, small shocks, and economic fluctuations: outliers in macroeconomic times series," Research Paper 9101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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  6. Sunil Sapra, 2003. "High-breakdown point estimation of some regression models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 875-878.
  7. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers, University of Liverpool Management School 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  8. Gu, Wulong & Baldwin, John R., 2007. "Multifactor Productivity in Canada: An Evaluation of Alternative Methods of Estimating Capital Services," The Canadian Productivity Review 2007009e, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis.
  9. Baldwin, John R. & Harchaoui, Tarek, 2002. "Productivity Growth in Canada," Productivity Growth in Canada, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis, number stcb6e, December.
  10. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  11. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Pena, Daniel, 1990. "Influential Observations in Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 235-41, April.
  13. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  14. Galeano, Pedro & Pena, Daniel & Tsay, Ruey S., 2006. "Outlier Detection in Multivariate Time Series by Projection Pursuit," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 654-669, June.
  15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586412 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Macdonald, Ryan, 2008. "An Examination of Public Capital's Role in Production," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2008050e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  2. Wulong Gu, 2012. "Estimating Capital Input for Measuring Business Sector Multifactor Productivity Growth in Canada: Response to Diewert and Yu," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 24, pages 49-62, Fall.

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