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Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical mark-up?

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  • Michael J. Dueker
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

Based on a switching-cost model, we examine empirically the hypotheses that bank loan mark-ups are countercyclical and asymmetric in their responsiveness to recessionary and expansionary impulses. The first econometric model treats changes in the mark-up as a continuous variable. The second treats them as an ordered categorical variable due to the discrete nature of prime rate changes. By allowing the variance to switch over time as a Markov process, we present the first conditionally heteroskedastic discrete choice (ordered probit) model for time-series applications. This feature yields a remarkable improvement in the likelihood function. Specifications that do not account for conditional heteroskedasticity find evidence of both countercyclical and asymmetric mark-up behavior. In contrast, the heteroskedastic ordered probit finds the mark-up to be countercyclical but not significantly asymmetric. We explain why controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity may be important when testing for downward stickiness in loan rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1997-004.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-004

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Related research

Keywords: Bank loans ; Interest rates;

References

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  1. Klemperer, Paul, 1995. "Competition When Consumers Have Switching Costs: An Overview with Applications to Industrial Organization, Macroeconomics, and International Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 515-39, October.
  2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  3. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "The cyclicality of interest rate spreads in Austria: Evidence for a financial decelerator?," Economics working papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  2. Fabien Tripier & Kevin E. Beaubrun-Diant, 2010. "The Credit Spread Cycle with Matching Friction," 2010 Meeting Papers 76, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2006. "La sensibilité de l'activité bancaire aux chocs macroéconomiques : une analyse en panel sur des données de banques luxembourgeoises," BCL working papers 21, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  4. Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "Market power in banking, countercyclical margins and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 292-301, March.
  5. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  6. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle," Economics working papers 2006-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

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