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Sunshine vs. predatory trading effects in commodity futures markets: New evidence from index rebalancing

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  • Yan, Lei
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Sanders, Dwight R.

Abstract

Annual rebalancing of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) provides a novel identification of the impact of predictable order flows from index investors in commodity futures markets. Using the 24 commodities included in the S&P GSCI for 2004–2019, we show that cumulative abnormal returns to a long-short strategy peaked at 72 basis points in the middle of the week following the rebalancing period, but the impact declines to near zero within the next week. The findings show that the impact of order flows from financial investors on commodity futures prices is modest and temporary, consistent with the prediction of sunshine trading theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2022. "Sunshine vs. predatory trading effects in commodity futures markets: New evidence from index rebalancing," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:26:y:2022:i:c:s2405851321000295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100195
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziyi Xu & Xue Cheng, 2023. "The Effects of High-frequency Anticipatory Trading: Small Informed Trader vs. Round-Tripper," Papers 2304.13985, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity futures; Financialization; Index; Order flow; Rebalancing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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