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Balassa-Samuelson Theory and Predictability of the US/UK Real Exchange Rate

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  • Kim Chung-Han
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    Abstract

    This paper performs a theory-based forecast of the US/UK real exchange rate. The theory is the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis that productivity differentials between two countries would determine long-run movements of real exchange rates. The relative income and real exchange rate set a bivariate system, which considers the heteroskedasticity in the real exchange rate movements. The model, to which the Kalman filter and Markov-switching algorithm are applied, is compared with the random walk model and reports significant improvements in forecasting in the medium and long term. [C53, F31]

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10168730000000031
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 101-121

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:14:y:2000:i:3:p:101-121

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