Do bio-fuel policies lead to speculative behavior?
AbstractPurpose – This paper seeks to study the impact of bio-fuel policies on oil and food futures prices from December 6, 2004 to August 1, 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The daily closing prices of brent crude oil, light sweet crude oil, corn, wheat, soybeans, and rough rice futures from December 6, 2004 to August 1, 2008 are used in this research. The vector error correction model is applied in order to study the impact of bio-fuel policies on oil and agricultural futures prices. Findings – Unit root and cointegration tests show that the brent crude oil, light sweet crude oil, wheat, corn, soybeans, and rough rice futures are stationary and have a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causality tests of the four periods shows that the causality relationship between oil futures and food futures changes over time. The first period result shows many Granger causes on several variables at a 5 percent significance level. The second period has more Granger causes at the 5 percent significance level. However, the Granger causality relationships become fewer and fewer in the third and fourth period. Originality/value – This is the first paper to study the impact of the four major bio-fuel policies of Brazil, the European Union, and the USA.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Financial Economic Policy.
Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1988.
"Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James D. Hamilton, 2008.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2004. "The impact of the Asian crisis on the behavior of US and international petroleum prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 135-160, January.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Green, T. Clifton & Hwang, Byoung-Hyoun, 2009. "Price-based return comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 37-50, July.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2000. "The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-266, April.
- Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-98, December.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2007. "The relationship between energy and production: Evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1165, November.
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin & Jeon, Bang, 2003. "Causality and volatility spillovers among petroleum prices of WTI, gasoline and heating oil in different locations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 89-114, March.
- S. Gurcan Gulen, 1999. "Regionalization in the World Crude Oil Market: Further Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 125-139.
- Kelvin Balcombe & Alastair Bailey & Jonathan Brooks, 2007. "Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 308-323.
- Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.