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Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices

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  • Kelvin Balcombe
  • Alastair Bailey
  • Jonathan Brooks

Abstract

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01013.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 89 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 308-323

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:89:y:2007:i:2:p:308-323

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Cited by:
  1. Abunyuwah, Isaac, 2013. "Implications of conceptual and data complexities on time-series econometric applications in market integration analysis," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 115(1), February.
  2. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  3. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming & Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2011. "Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 806-819, May.
  4. Eskandar Elmarzougui & Bruno Larue, 2011. "On the Evolving Relationship between Corn and Oil Prices," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2011-3, CREATE.
  5. Greb, Friederike & Krivobokova, Tatyana & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Munk, Axel, 2011. "On threshold estimation in threshold vector error correction models," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114599, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Acosta, Alejandro, 2012. "Measuring spatial transmission of white maize prices between South Africa and Mozambique: An asymmetric error correction model approach," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 7(1), October.
  7. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Cioffi, Antonio, 2. "Transmission Of Market Crises In The European Vegetables Sector," Politica Agricola Internazionale - International Agricultural Policy, Edizioni L’Informatore Agrario, issue 2.
  8. repec:eid:wpaper:11/09 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Goetz, Linde & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Considering threshold effects in the long-run equilibrium in a vector error correction model: An application to the German apple market," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44247, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  10. Friederike Greb & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Tatyana Krivobokova & Axel Munk, 2011. "The estimation of threshold models in price transmission analysis," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 103, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 08 Oct 2012.
  11. Stephan Brosig & Thomas Glauben & Linde Götz & Enno‐Burghard Weitzel & Ahmet Bayaner, 2011. "The Turkish wheat market: spatial price transmission and the impact of transaction costs," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 147-161, Spring.
  12. Liefert, William M. & Persuad, Suresh, 2009. "The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Agricultural Prices," Economic Research Report 55942, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  13. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2009. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 49940, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  14. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis: Threshold Models vs. Markov-Switching Models," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44198, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  15. Larson, Donald F. & Sarris, Alexander, 2009. "The performance of Bulgarian food markets during reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4876, The World Bank.
  16. Chia-Hsing Huang & Liang-Chun Ho, 2011. "Do bio-fuel policies lead to speculative behavior?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 161-174, July.
  17. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2009. "Nonlinear Price Transmission in Wheat Export Prices," Department of Economics Working Papers 15967, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
  18. Gotz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "The Law of One Price under State-Dependent Policy Intervention: An Application to the Ukrainian Wheat Market," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124904, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  19. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2010. "Smooth transition effects in price transmission: The case of international wheat export prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 169-171, March.
  20. Giulia LISTORTI, 2008. "Price Transmission Mechanisms: a Policy Investigation of International Wheat Markets," Working Papers 318, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  21. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.

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