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Crude-oil price volatility and agricultural employment in the USA

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  • Uri, Noel D.
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    Abstract

    This study begins by asking whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected agricultural employment in the USA. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude-oil price volatility is established using Granger causality. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and the volatility of the price of crude oil, the percentage changes in expected net farm income, realized technological innovation, and the wage rate are examined.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 54 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 4 (August)
    Pages: 355-373

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:54:y:1996:i:4:p:355-373

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    1. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    2. Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "Information Criteria for Discriminating among Alternative Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1273-91, November.
    3. Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
    4. Johnson, Cheryl D., 1990. "A Historical Look at Farm Income," Statistical Bulletin 154702, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
    6. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
    7. Pierce, David A. & Haugh, Larry D., 1979. "The characterization of instantaneous causality : A comment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 257-259, June.
    8. Michael R. Darby, 1981. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," UCLA Economics Working Papers 228, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Pierce, David A., 1975. "Forecasting in dynamic models with stochastic regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 349-374, November.
    10. Loungani, Prakash, 1986. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 536-39, August.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
    12. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    13. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
    14. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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