Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium

Contents:

Author Info

  • Chevillon, Guillaume

    ()
    (ESSEC Business School)

  • Rifflart, Christine

    ()
    (Sciences-Po Center for Economic Research (OFCE) and National Political Science Foundation)

Abstract

We analyze the physical, i.e. non financial, determinants of the real price of crude oil by means of an equilibrium correction model over the last two decades. We find that two cointegrating relations affect the change in prices: one refers to OPEC's cartel behavior attempting to control prices using its market power and quotas; the other to the coverage rate of expected future demand by OECD using inventory behaviours. We derive an equation for the change in oil prices which we use to assess the speculative elements of the early millennium price hike. We show that worries alien to the physical markets are the causes of the increase in oil prices and are able to quantify their impact.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.essec.fr/faculty/showDeclFileRes.do?declId=7537&key=__workpaper__
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School in its series ESSEC Working Papers with number DR 07020.

as in new window
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-07020

Contact details of provider:
Postal: ESSEC Research Center, BP 105, 95021 Cergy, France
Email:
Web page: http://www.essec.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Cointegration; Forecast; Market Premium; Oil Price;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, 06.
  2. Griffin, James M, 1985. "OPEC Behavior: A Test of Alternative Hypotheses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 954-63, December.
  3. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Gasteuil, Audrey & Mann, Michael, 2008. "Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2609-2622, September.
  4. Sadorsky, Perry, 2002. "Time-varying risk premiums in petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 539-556, November.
  5. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
  6. Peter Wickham, 1996. "Volatility of Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 96/82, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," International Finance 9509001, EconWPA.
  8. Bekiros, S. & Diks, C.G.H., 2007. "The Relationship between Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices: Cointegration, Linear and Nonlinear Causality," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  9. Kuper, Gerard H., 2002. "Measuring oil price volatility," Research Report 02C43, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  10. Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
  11. Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
  12. Tang, Linghui & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2002. "An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 577-596, November.
  13. Ramcharran, Harri, 2001. "OPEC's production under fluctuating oil prices: further test of the target revenue theory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 667-681, November.
  14. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bacon, Robert W, 1991. "Modelling the Price of Oil," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 17-34, Summer.
  16. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
  17. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2001. "A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, December.
  18. William D. Nordhaus, 1973. "The Allocation of Energy Resources," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 529-576.
  19. Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
  20. Fattouh, Bassam, 2010. "The dynamics of crude oil price differentials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 334-342, March.
  21. Noureddine Krichene, 2007. "An Oil and Gas Model," IMF Working Papers 07/135, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  23. Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
  24. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/62, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Regnier, Eva, 2007. "Oil and energy price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 405-427, May.
  26. Geroski, Paul A & Ulph, Alistair M & Ulph, David T, 1987. "A Model of the Crude Oil Market in Which Market Conduct Varies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 77-86, Supplemen.
  27. Hendry, David F., 1997. "On congruent econometric relations : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 163-190, December.
  28. Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "Oil production responses to price changes: an empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 97-106, March.
  29. Hubbard, R Glenn, 1986. "Supply Shocks and Price Adjustment in the World Oil Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 85-102, February.
  30. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W14, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  31. Fong, Wai Mun & See, Kim Hock, 2002. "A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-95, January.
  32. Farzin, Y. H., 2001. "The impact of oil price on additions to US proven reserves," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, July.
  33. Ye, Michael & Zyren, John & Shore, Joanne, 2005. "A monthly crude oil spot price forecasting model using relative inventories," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 491-501.
  34. Yang, C. W. & Hwang, M. J. & Huang, B. N., 2002. "An analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the US oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 107-119, March.
  35. A. M. Ulph & G. M. Folie, 1980. "Exhaustible Resources and Cartels: An Intertemporal Nash-Cournot Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(4), pages 645-58, November.
  36. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Verleger, Philip K, Jr, 1982. "The Determinants of Official OPEC Crude Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 177-82, May.
  38. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "Implementing a stochastic model for oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-238, May.
  39. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  40. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
  41. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ellen, Saskia ter & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Oil price dynamics: A behavioral finance approach with heterogeneous agents," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1427-1434, November.
  2. Robert Czudaj & Joscha Beckmann, 2012. "Spot and futures commodity markets and the unbiasedness hypothesis - evidence from a novel panel unit root test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1695-1707.
  3. Kolodzeij, Marek & Kaufmann, Robert.K., 2014. "Oil demand shocks reconsidered: A cointegrated vector autoregression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 33-40.
  4. Harsem, Øistein & Eide, Arne & Heen, Knut, 2011. "Factors influencing future oil and gas prospects in the Arctic," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8037-8045.
  5. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
  6. repec:wyi:wpaper:002040 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Li, Chuan-Zhong & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1226-1233.
  8. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
  9. Ekins, Paul & Pollitt, Hector & Barton, Jennifer & Blobel, Daniel, 2011. "The implications for households of environmental tax reform (ETR) in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2472-2485.
  10. Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki, 2010. "An agent-based approach equipped with game theory: Strategic collaboration among learning agents during a dynamic market change in the California electricity crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1009-1024, September.
  11. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 131-141.
  12. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2011. "What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation," Working Paper Series 1371, European Central Bank.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-07020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sophie Magnanou).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.