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Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels

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  • Michael Ye
  • John Zyren
  • Joanne Shore

Abstract

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2002

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  • Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore, 2002. "Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(4), pages 324-333, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:8:y:2002:i:4:p:324-333:10.1007/bf02295507
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02295507
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