The dynamics of crude oil price differentials
AbstractCrude oil price differentials are modelled as a two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) process using the method proposed by Caner and Hansen [Caner, M., Hansen, B.E. Threshold autoregression with a unit root. Econometrica 2001; 69; 1555-1596.]. While standard unit root tests suggest that the prices of crude oil of different varieties move closely together such that their price differential is stationary, the TAR results indicate strong evidence of threshold effects in the adjustment process to the long-run equilibrium. These findings suggest that crude oil prices are linked and thus at the very general level, the oil market is 'one great pool' (Adelman, M.A. International oil agreements. The Energy Journal 1984; 5; 1-9.). However, differences in the dynamics of adjustment suggest that within this one pool, oil markets are not necessarily integrated in every time period and hence the dynamics of crude oil price differentials may not follow a stationary process at all times. Although the development of a liquid futures market around the crude oil benchmarks has helped make some distant markets more unified, arbitrage is not costless or risk-free and temporary breakdowns in the benchmarks can lead to decoupling of crude oil prices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Crude oil price differentials Threshold effects Stationarity Partial unit root;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- M. A. Adelman, 1984. "International Oil Agreements," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-10.
- Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2004. "Cost of carry, causality and arbitrage between oil futures and tanker freight markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 297-316, July.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
- Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997.
"Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
381, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Weiner, 1991. "Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool"?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 95-108.
- Nikolaos Milonas & Thomas Henker, 2001. "Price spread and convenience yield behaviour in the international oil market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 23-36.
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Balke-Fomby threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00010, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Andrew N. Kleit, 2001. "Are Regional Oil Markets Growing Closer Together?: An Arbitrage Cost Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-15.
- Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Weiner, R.J., 1991. "Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool?"," Papers 9120, Laval - Recherche en Energie.
- Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2008. "Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Crude Oil Benchmarks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 79-96.
- Kolodziej, Marek & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2013. "The role of trader positions in spot and futures prices for WTI," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 176-182.
- Neil A. Wilmot, 2013. "Cointegration in the Oil Market among Regional Blends," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 424 - 433.
- Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009.
"Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium,"
Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
- Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2007. "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07020, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
- Yue-Hua Dai & Wen-Jie Xie & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & George J. Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2014. "Correlation structure and principal components in global crude oil market," Papers 1405.5000, arXiv.org.
- Chang, C-L. & Chen, L.H. & Hammoudeh, S.M. & McAleer, M.J., 2011.
"Asymmetric Adjustment in the Ethanol and Grains Markets,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2010-78, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Chang, Chia-Lin & Chen, Li-Hsueh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Asymmetric adjustments in the ethanol and grains markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1990-2002.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Li-Hsueh Chen & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustments in the Ethanol and Grains Markets," KIER Working Papers 752, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Li-Hsueh Chen & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Michael McAleer, 2012. "Asymmetric Adjustments in the Ethanol and Grains Markets," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de AnÃ¡lisis EconÃ³mico 2012-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, revised Apr 2012.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Li-Hsueh Chen & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustments in the Ethanol and Grains Markets," Working Papers in Economics 10/78, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Julien Chevallier, 2013.
"Price relationships in crude oil futures: new evidence from CFTC disaggregated data,"
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies,
Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 15(2), pages 133-170, April.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Price relationships in crude oil futures: new evidence from CFTC disaggregated data," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11712, Paris Dauphine University.
- Masih, Mansur & Algahtani, Ibrahim & De Mello, Lurion, 2010. "Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1435-1444, November.
- Bertrand Candelon & Marc Joëts & Sessi Tokpavi, 2012. "Testing for crude oil markets globalization during extreme price movements," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-28, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Reboredo, Juan C., 2011. "How do crude oil prices co-move?: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 948-955, September.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Joëts, Marc & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2013. "Testing for Granger causality in distribution tails: An application to oil markets integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 276-285.
- Liu, Li & Chen, Ching-Cheng & Wan, Jieqiu, 2013. "Is world oil market “one great pool”?: An example from China's and international oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 364-373.
- Kaufmann, Robert K., 2011. "The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 105-115, January.
- Mann, Janelle M, 2013. "Is there a Global Relationship Across Crude Oil Benchmarks?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Li, Chuan-Zhong & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1226-1233.
- Kao, Chung-Wei & Wan, Jer-Yuh, 2012. "Price discount, inventories and the distortion of WTI benchmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 117-124.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.