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Explaining the so-called "price premium" in oil markets

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  • Antonio Merino
  • Alvaro Ortiz

Abstract

This paper explores the information content of several variables on the so-called "oil price premium over fundamentals". We define this premium as the difference between the market oil price and the estimated price consistent with the OECD's relative industry stock level. By using Granger causality tests and extended regressions we test the systematic ability of a broad set of variables to explain the premium. We find that speculation in the oil market - measured by non-commercial long positions - can improve the traditional model, reducing the premium significantly during some parts of the sample. Copyright 2005 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in its journal OPEC Review.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 133-152

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Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:29:y:2005:i:2:p:133-152

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Cited by:
  1. Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "Energy and emissions : local and global effects of the rise of China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4209, The World Bank.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2013. "Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices," Working Paper Series rwp13-022, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
  4. Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Slim Chouachi, 2014. "Evolution of Crude Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The case of OPEC Countries," Working Papers 2014-421, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  5. Matteo Manera & Chiara Longo & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2007. "Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting," Working Papers 2007.4, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Cavalcante, Mileno, 2010. "An Analysis of the relationship between WTI term structure and oil market fundamentals in 2002-2009," MPRA Paper 24263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Martina, Esteban & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Escarela-Perez, Rafael & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 936-947, September.
  8. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009. "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 29-44, 04.

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