Explaining the so-called "price premium" in oil markets
AbstractThis paper explores the information content of several variables on the so-called "oil price premium over fundamentals". We define this premium as the difference between the market oil price and the estimated price consistent with the OECD's relative industry stock level. By using Granger causality tests and extended regressions we test the systematic ability of a broad set of variables to explain the premium. We find that speculation in the oil market - measured by non-commercial long positions - can improve the traditional model, reducing the premium significantly during some parts of the sample. Copyright 2005 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in its journal OPEC Review.
Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/%28ISSN%291753-0237
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Matteo Manera & Chiara Longo & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2007. "Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting," Working Papers 2007.4, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Cavalcante, Mileno, 2010. "An Analysis of the relationship between WTI term structure and oil market fundamentals in 2002-2009," MPRA Paper 24263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2013.
"Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices,"
Working Paper Series
rwp13-022, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2014. "Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-112.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2013. "Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a “Carry Trade” Model of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 19463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martina, Esteban & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Escarela-Perez, Rafael & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 936-947, September.
- Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "Energy and emissions : local and global effects of the rise of China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4209, The World Bank.
- Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009. "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 29-44, 04.
- Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Slim Chouachi, 2014. "Evolution of Crude Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The case of OPEC Countries," Working Papers 2014-421, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.