Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies

Does an improvement in growth prospects (technological news shock) lead to a fall in the trade balance? We introduce a novel news shock identification scheme and obtain in a panel vector autoregression (VAR) for the G7 countries the following results. Positive news shocks have negative effects on the trade balance in the United States and Japan. However, in other G7 countries, the effects are positive to a great extent. The differences in trade balance dynamics are mainly due to heterogeneous reactions of labour markets and wealth effects. Further, the terms of trade and exchange rate movements play an important role in explaining the results. Therefore, policy recommendations aimed at reducing the trade imbalances through productivity‐enhancing reforms in advanced economies might not entail the targeted effects.