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Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets

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  • Michael Sockin
  • Wei Xiong
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    Abstract

    This paper develops a model to analyze information aggregation in commodity markets. Through centralized trading, commodity prices aggregate dispersed information about the strength of the global economy among goods producers whose production has complementarity, and serve as price signals to guide producers' production decisions and commodity demand. Our analysis highlights important feedback effects of informational noise originating from supply shocks and futures market trading on commodity demand and spot prices, which are ignored by existing empirical studies and policy discussions.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18906.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18906

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    1. Tor-Erik Bakke & Toni M. Whited, 2010. "Which Firms Follow the Market? An Analysis of Corporate Investment Decisions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1941-1980.
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    5. Itay Goldstein & Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan, 2011. "Learning and Complementarities in Speculative Attacks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 263-292.
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    7. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Speculation in the oil market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
    9. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
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    12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    13. Bray, Margaret M, 1981. "Futures Trading, Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 575-96, May.
    14. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Feedback from Stock Prices to Cash Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2389-2413, December.
    15. Fattouh, Bassam & Kilian, Lutz & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:
    1. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Shi, Song & Ho Tang, Edward Chi, 2013. "Commodity house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 875-887.

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