Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets
AbstractThis paper develops a model to analyze information aggregation in commodity markets. Through centralized trading, commodity prices aggregate dispersed information about the strength of the global economy among goods producers whose production has complementarity, and serve as price signals to guide producers' production decisions and commodity demand. Our analysis highlights important feedback effects of informational noise originating from supply shocks and futures market trading on commodity demand and spot prices, which are ignored by existing empirical studies and policy discussions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18906.
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Note: AP IFM ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-03-30 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2013-03-30 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
- Itay Goldstein & Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan, 2011. "Learning and Complementarities in Speculative Attacks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 263-292.
- Fattouh, Bassam & Kilian, Lutz & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lombardi, Marco J. & Van Robays, Ine, 2011.
"Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?,"
Working Paper Series
1346, European Central Bank.
- M. J. Lombardi & I. Van Robays, 2011. "Do Financial Investors Destabilize the Oil Price?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/760, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997.
"On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1908, David K. Levine.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
- Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
- Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Feedback from Stock Prices to Cash Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2389-2413, December.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tor-Erik Bakke & Toni M. Whited, 2010. "Which Firms Follow the Market? An Analysis of Corporate Investment Decisions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1941-1980.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2011.
"Speculation in the oil market,"
2011-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Bray, Margaret M, 1981. "Futures Trading, Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 575-96, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Dan, 2010. "The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010.
"What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Shi, Song & Tang, Edward Chi Ho, 2013.
"Commodity house prices,"
49489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Charles Ka Yui Leung & Song Shi & Edward Tang, 2013. "Commodity house prices," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 154, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.