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The ACEGES laboratory for energy policy: Exploring the production of crude oil

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  • Voudouris, Vlasios
  • Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios
  • Rigby, Robert
  • Di Maio, Carlo

Abstract

An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of 'the invisible hand' but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 5480-5489

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5480-5489

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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Keywords: Oil depletion Oil scenario generation ACEGES;

References

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  1. Hallock, John L. & Tharakan, Pradeep J. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Jefferson, Michael & Wu, Wei, 2004. "Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1673-1696.
  2. Fernholz, Robert, 1999. "On the diversity of equity markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 393-417, April.
  3. Kaufmann, Robert K., 1991. "Oil production in the lower 48 states : Reconciling curve fitting and econometric models," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 111-127, April.
  4. M. C. Jones & Arthur Pewsey, 2009. "Sinh-arcsinh distributions," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(4), pages 761-780.
  5. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  6. Vlasios Voudouris, 2011. "Towards a conceptual synthesis of dynamic and geospatial models: fusing the agent-based and Object – Field models," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 38(1), pages 95-114, January.
  7. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
  8. Li, Hongyan & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2009. "Development of Open Source Software for Power Market Research: The AMES Test Bed," Staff General Research Papers 13069, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2006. "Agent-Based Computational Economics: A Constructive Approach to Economic Theory," Staff General Research Papers 12514, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Roger Bentley & Godfrey Boyle, 2008. "Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, July.
  11. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
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Cited by:
  1. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Aleklett, Kjell, 2014. "Bottom-up modeling of oil production: A review of approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 113-123.
  2. Anna Klabunde, 2014. "Computational Economic Modeling of Migration," Ruhr Economic Papers 0471, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. McGlade, Christophe & Ekins, Paul, 2014. "Un-burnable oil: An examination of oil resource utilisation in a decarbonised energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 102-112.

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