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Do oil prices predict Indonesian macroeconomy?

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  • Sharma, Susan Sunila
  • Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach
  • Iyke, Bernard

Abstract

We examine, for the first time, whether oil price is a significant predictor of Indonesia’s 31 macroeconomic variables. Our analysis employs monthly time-series data over the period 1986 to 2018, and a recently advanced flexible generalised least squares estimator that simultaneously addresses persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity in the data. We show that oil price significantly predicts eight macroeconomic variables. For the remaining 23 macroeconomic variables, we report either that oil price does not predict them or that their predictability is dependent on the choice of the forecasting horizon. Our results are robust to alternative measures of oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard, 2019. "Do oil prices predict Indonesian macroeconomy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 2-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:82:y:2019:i:c:p:2-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.08.008
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