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Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?

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  • Joakim Westerlund

    ()
    (Deakin University)

  • Paresh K Narayan

    ()
    (Deakin University)

Abstract

While the literature concerned with the predictability of stock returns is huge, surprisingly little is known when it comes to role of the choice of estimator of the predictive regression. Ideally, the choice of estimator should be rooted in the salient features of the data. In case of predictive regressions of returns there are at least three such features; (i) returns are heteroskedastic, (ii) predictors are persistent, and (iii) regression errors are correlated with predictor innovations. In this paper we examine if the accounting of these features in the estimation process has any bearing on our ability to forecast future returns. The results suggest that it does.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Financial Econometics Series with number 2012_01.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 11 May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2012_01

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Keywords: Predictive regression; Stock return predictability; Heteroskedasticity; Predictor endogeneity;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Susan S Sharma, . "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Financial Econometics Series 2013_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Susan S Sharma, . "Do Oil Prices Predict Economic Growth? New Global Evidence," Financial Econometics Series 2014_09, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  3. Westerlund, Joakim & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "On the implementation and use of factor-augmented regressions in panel data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 3-11.
  4. Bentes, Sonia R. & Menezes, Rui, 2013. "On the predictability of realized volatility using feasible GLS," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 58-66.
  5. Susan S Sharma & Kannan Thuraisamy, 2012. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Asian Economies," Financial Econometics Series 2012_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  6. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Susan S Sharma & Deepa Bannigidadmath, . "Does Tourism Predict Macroeconomic Performance in Pacific Island Countries?," Financial Econometics Series 2013_03, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  7. Narayan, Seema, 2013. "Foreign exchange markets and oil prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 41-50.
  8. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Sticky prices or economically-linked economies: The case of forecasting the Chinese stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 95-109.
  9. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2014. "What expenditure does Anglosphere foreign borrowing fund?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 63-78.
  10. Joakim Westerlund & Paresh Kumar Narayan, . "Testing for Predictability in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Stock Returns," Financial Econometics Series 2014_01, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  11. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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