Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A Kalman filter approach to characterizing the Canadian term structure of interest rates

Contents:

Author Info

  • Toni Gravelle
  • James Morley

Abstract

This paper employs a Kalman filter approach to test the Expectations Hypothesis and characterize how term premia have changed over time for short-term Canadian interest rates. The Kalman filter approach is extended to account for changes in interest rate volatility, possible permanent changes in term premia, and overlapping forecast errors. The Expectations Hypothesis is strongly rejected with estimated term premia displaying significant time variation. There is some evidence of a positive relationship between term premia and interest rate volatility, although other macroeconomic and political factors are important, especially exchange rate volatility. Also, estimated term premia were actually negative during the late 1980s.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100500107917
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2005)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 691-705

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:10:p:691-705

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAFE20

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  2. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157.
  4. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. " Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 395-406, June.
  5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  6. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-28, May.
  7. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  8. repec:nbr:nberwo:2341 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  10. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
  11. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  12. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  13. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
  14. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
  15. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  17. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
  18. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  19. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-80, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Michael Gordon, 2003. "Estimates of time-varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  2. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
  3. Osmani T. Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2008. "Characterizing the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 158, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Fabrizio Casalin, 2007. "Single Equation Models, Co-Integration and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/06, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  5. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2010. "Structural breaks and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: evidence from Central European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(4), pages 757-774, January.
  6. Date, Paresh & Wang, Chieh, 2009. "Linear Gaussian affine term structure models with unobservable factors: Calibration and yield forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 156-166, May.
  7. Date, P. & Canepa, A. & Abdel-Jawad, M., 2011. "A mixed integer linear programming model for optimal sovereign debt issuance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 749-758, November.
  8. Arielle Beyaert & Juan Jose Perez-Castejon, 2009. "Markov-switching models, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 399-412.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:10:p:691-705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.