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El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics

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  • David Ubilava

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 17-26

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Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:43:y:2012:i:1:p:17-26

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  1. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  2. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
  3. Costas Milas & Jesus Otero, 2002. "Smooth transition vector error correction models for the spot prices of coffee," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 925-928.
  4. Costas Milas & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2001. "Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002737, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
  7. Letson, David & McCullough, B.D., 2001. "Enso And Soybean Prices: Correlation Without Causality," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(03), December.
  8. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José M. Gil & Barry K. Goodwin, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. corn‐ethanol‐oil‐gasoline price system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 35-45, 01.
  9. Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "The Market Effect of a Food Scare: The Case of Genetically Modified StarLink Corn," Working Papers 11997, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  10. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  11. Muradian, Roldan & Pelupessy, Wim, 2005. "Governing the coffee chain: The role of voluntary regulatory Systems," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2029-2044, December.
  12. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  13. Otero, Jesus & Milas, Costas, 2001. "Modelling the spot prices of various coffee types," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-641, December.
  14. Allan D. Brunner, 2002. "El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 176-183, February.
  15. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  16. Berry, Brian J.L. & Okulicz-Kozaryn, Adam, 2008. "Are there ENSO signals in the macroeconomy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 625-633, January.
  17. Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
  18. Ubilava, David & Holt, Matthew T., 2009. "Nonlinearities in the World Vegetable Oil Price System: El Nino Effects," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49360, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  19. Vogelvang, E, 1992. "Hypotheses Testing Concerning Relationships between Spot Prices of Various Types of Coffee," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 191-201, April-Jun.
  20. Pei-Fen Chen & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2008. "Nonlinear adjustments in deviations from the law of one price for wholesale hog prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 123-134, 07.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aizhen Li & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta & David K. Okello & Carl M. Deom & Naveen Puppala, 2013. "Groundnut Production and Climatic Variability: Evidence from Uganda," Working Papers 17, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Charles J. Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy.
  2. Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2014. "Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1418, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Ubilava, David & Helmers, C Gustav, 2012. "Forecasting ENSO with a smooth transition autoregressive model," MPRA Paper 36890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Wilson, Adam P. & Wilson, Norbert L., 2013. "The Economics of Quality in the Specialty Coffee Industry: Insights from the Cup of Excellence Auction Programs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150721, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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