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Oil Shocks and the Business Cycle in Europe

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  • Baltasar Manzano
  • Carlos de Miguel
  • José Mª Martín Moreno

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on the business cycle of the EU-15 countries using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model for a small open economy in which oil is included as an imported productive input. The results show that oil shocks can account for a significant percentage of GDP fluctuations in many of those countries. Furthermore, we show that the increases in the relative price of oil had a negative effect on welfare, particularly in southern European countries, which are historically associated with a lax monetary policy during oil crisis.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Studies on the Spanish Economy with number 215.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:215

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  1. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  2. In-Moo Kim & Prakash Loungani, 1991. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Olson, Mancur, 1988. "The Productivity Slowdown, the Oil Shocks, and the Real Cycle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 43-69, Fall.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
  5. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin-Moreno, 2003. "Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 47-61.
  6. Robert S. Pindyck, 1979. "The Structure of World Energy Demand," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661772, January.
  7. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
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