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Semi-Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure

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  • Hunt, Julien
  • Devolder, Pierre

Abstract

In this paper, we present a discrete time regime switching binomial-like model of the term structure where the regime switches are governed by a discrete time semi-Markov process. We model the evolution of the prices of zero-coupon when given an initial term structure as in the model by Ho and Lee that we aim to extend. We discuss and derive conditions for the model to be arbitrage free and relate this to the notion of martingale measure. We explicitly show that due to the extra source of uncertainty coming from the underlying semi-Markov process, there are an infinite number of equivalent martingale measures. The notion of path independence is also studied in some detail, especially in the presence of regime switches. We deal with the market incompleteness by giving an explicit characterization of the minimal entropy martingale measure. We give an application to the pricing of a European bond option both in a Markov and semi-Markov framework. Finally, we draw some conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hunt, Julien & Devolder, Pierre, 2011. "Semi-Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3767-3781.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:21:p:3767-3781
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.04.036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Assonken & G. S. Ladde, 2015. "Option Pricing With A Levy-Type Stochastic Dynamic Model For Stock Price Process Under Semi-Markovian Structural Perturbations," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(08), pages 1-72, December.
    2. D’Amico, Guglielmo & Manca, Raimondo & Salvi, Giovanni, 2013. "A semi-Markov modulated interest rate model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 2094-2102.
    3. Milan Kumar Das & Anindya Goswami & Nimit Rana, 2016. "Risk Sensitive Portfolio Optimization in a Jump Diffusion Model with Regimes," Papers 1603.09149, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    4. Guglielmo D'Amico & Raimondo Manca & Giovanni Salvi, 2012. "A Semi-Markov Modulated Interest Rate Model," Papers 1210.3164, arXiv.org.
    5. Preda, Vasile & Dedu, Silvia & Sheraz, Muhammad, 2014. "New measure selection for Hunt–Devolder semi-Markov regime switching interest rate models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 350-359.
    6. Anindya Goswami & Omkar Manjarekar & Anjana R, 2018. "Option Pricing in a Regime Switching Jump Diffusion Model," Papers 1811.11379, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    7. Xiaojing Xi & Rogemar Mamon, 2014. "Capturing the Regime-Switching and Memory Properties of Interest Rates," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(3), pages 307-337, October.
    8. Tanmay S. Patankar, 2016. "Asset Pricing in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market with Time-dependent Volatility," Papers 1609.04907, arXiv.org.

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