This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Is the Impact of ECB Monetary Policy on EMU Stock Market Returns asymmetric?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Oreste Napolitano

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns of the EUM countries at aggregate levels and, for six industry portfolios in France, Italy, Germany, Belgium and Netherlands respectively. In this work, a different measures of monetary policy innovation is adopted. The empirical results, in line with results from previous studies, indicate that for the EUM stock markets there is statistically significant relationship between policy innovations and stock markets returns. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that positive monetary policy shock (e.g. contractionary policy) is an event that decrease future cash flow. Moreover, the finding from country size and industry portfolios indicate that monetary policy have larger asymmetric effect in industry portfolios of big countries (Italy, France and Germany) compared to the same industry portfolios of small countries (Netherlands and Belgium). However, the sign of the impact is for both groups the same. The policy implications of the analysis can be summarized as follows: if the ECB follows a contractionary monetary policy then the effect on the stock market returns will be lengthier and larger in bear markets. On the other hand, following the same policy, the effect of the ECB actions on the EMU stock markets returns will be smaller in bull markets. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral, at least in the short run and, moreover, that there is some role for anticipated ECB monetary policy to affect the stock market but that this role will also have asymmetric impacts on each single EMU country’s stock market.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://economia.uniparthenope.it/ise/sito/DP/DP_1_2006.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy in its series Discussion Papers with number 1_2006.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:prt:dpaper:1_2006

Contact details of provider:
Postal: via Medina 40, 80133 I - Napoli
Phone: ++39-81-5512207
Fax: ++39-81-5511140
Email:
Web page: http://economia.uniparthenope.it/ise/sito/index.htm
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Antonietta Milano).

Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Markov-switching; Stock returns.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. J. Benson Durham, 2001. "The effect of monetary policy on monthly and quarterly stock market returns: cross-country evidence and sensitivity analyses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Rudiger Dornbusch & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 6369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2002. "Why the Fed should ignore the stock market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar., pages 35-42. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. " On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Ammer, John & Mei, Jianping, 1996. " Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1743-63, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Gregory H. Bauer & Clara Vega, 2004. "The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," Working Papers 04-47, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Markov regime-switching and unit root tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 683, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2005. "Financial Condition Index And Interest Rate Settings: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 8_2005, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
  21. Vigfusson, Robert, 1997. "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2005. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Macroeconomics 0502001, EconWPA, revised 01 Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by encouraging others to use our services.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-6.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.