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Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Baldo

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Elisa Bonifacio

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Brandi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Michelina Lo Russo

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Gianluca Maddaloni

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Nobili

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giorgia Rocco

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Gabriele Sene

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Massimo Valentini

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

In this study, we assess the main drivers of banknote circulation in Italy over the last decades by using a number of econometric tools proposed in the literature. We explore the role played by the banknote flows from abroad, changes in the institutional framework and disentangle domestic demand for transaction purposes from other components, including liquidity hoarding. We find that changes in legal limits on cash payment and money holdings for precautionary reasons explain the bulk of cash dynamics. Moreover, the share of transaction demand declined over time becoming of second-order. Finally, we find that, during the pandemic from Covid-19, the exceptional raise in cash circulation was mostly the result of an increase in precautionary demand due to both economic uncertainty and restrictions to mobility that resulted into a marked decline of lodgments to the central bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Baldo & Elisa Bonifacio & Marco Brandi & Michelina Lo Russo & Gianluca Maddaloni & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco & Gabriele Sene & Massimo Valentini, 2021. "Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 7, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wpmisp:mip_007_21
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/mercati-infrastrutture-e-sistemi-di-pagamento/approfondimenti/2021-007/N.7-MISP.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Franz Seitz & Lucas Devigne & Raymond de Pastor, 2022. "Different Motives for Holding Cash in France: an Analysis of the Net Cash Issues of the Banque de France," Working papers 888, Banque de France.
    2. Edoardo Rainone, 2022. "Currency demand at negative policy rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1359, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Batiz-Lazo, Bernardo & Bautista-González, Manuel A & González-Correa, Ignacio, 2021. "La transformación en el uso de efectivo y pagos digitales durante la pandemia de Covid-19 [Thye transformation in the use of cash and digital payments during the Covid-19 pandemioc]," MPRA Paper 109943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tamele, Barbora & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro & Litardi, Chiara & Howes, John & Steinmann, Eike & Todt, Daniel, 2021. "Catch me (if you can): assessing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via euro cash," Occasional Paper Series 259, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cash circulation; cash; payment habits; Covid-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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