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Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes

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  • Mark Coppejans
  • Donna Gilleskie
  • Holger Sieg
  • Koleman Strumpf

Abstract

We develop a demand model for goods that are subject to habit formation. We show that consumption plans of forward looking individuals depend on preferences, current period prices, and individual beliefs about the evolution of future prices. Moreover, an increase in price uncertainty reduces consumption along the optimal path. With smoking as our application, we test the predictions of our model using a unique data set of prices for cigarettes and the restricted use version of the National Education Longitudinal Study. Our estimation results suggest that teenagers who live in metropolitan areas with a large amount of cigarette price volatility have, on average, significantly lower levels of cigarette consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2006-E43.

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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:1147273333

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Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/

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Web: http://student-3k.tepper.cmu.edu/gsiadoc/GSIA_WP.asp

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dimitrios Christelis & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano, 2009. "Smoking Persistence Across Countries: An Analysis Using Semi-Parametric Dynamic Panel Data Models with Selectivity," CSEF Working Papers 236, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  2. Christelis, Dimitris & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2011. "Smoking persistence across countries: A panel data analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1077-1093.
  3. Ciliberto Federico & Kuminoff Nicolai V, 2010. "Public Policy and Market Competition: How the Master Settlement Agreement Changed the Cigarette Industry," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-46, July.
  4. Sophie Massin, 2011. "La notion d'addiction en économie : La théorie du choix rationnel à l'épreuve," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 121(5), pages 713-750.
  5. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2013. "Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt25q4w08n, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  6. Khayyat, Nabaz T. & Heshmati, Almas, 2014. "Production Risk, Energy Use Efficiency and Productivity of Korean Industries," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 359, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
  7. Dimitris Christelis & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano, 2010. "Smoking persistence in Europe: A semi-parametric panel data analysis with selectivity," Working Papers 2010_15, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  8. K. Rebecca Scott, 2012. "Rational Habits and Uncertain Prices: Simulating Gasoline Consumption Behavior," Economics Series Working Papers 596, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Cowan, Benjamin W., 2011. "Forward-thinking teens: The effects of college costs on adolescent risky behavior," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 813-825, October.
  10. Valentina Raimondi & Margherita Scoppola & Alessandro Olper, 2012. "Preference erosion and the developing countries exports to the EU: a dynamic panel gravity approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 707-732, December.
  11. Elie Appelbaum & Aman Ullah, 1997. "Estimation Of Moments And Production Decisions Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 631-637, November.
  12. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  13. Yu-Fu Chen & Dennis Petrie, 2012. "When to Quit Under Uncertainty? A real options approach to smoking cessation," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 272, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  14. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. G. Guindon, 2014. "The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 19-39, January.

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