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Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior

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Author Info
Igal Hendel
Aviv Nevo

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Abstract

Temporary price reductions (sales) are common for many goods and naturally result in large increases in the quantity sold. Demand estimation based on temporary price reductions may mis-measure the long run responsiveness to prices. In this paper we quantify the extent of the problem and assess its economic implications. We structurally estimate a dynamic model of consumer choice using two years of scanner data on the purchasing behavior of a panel of households. The results suggest that static demand estimates, which neglect dynamics: (i) overestimate own price elasticities by 30 percent; (ii) underestimate cross-price elasticities to other products by up to a factor of 5; and (iii) overestimate the substitution to the no purchase, or outside option, by over 200 percent.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11307.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11307

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G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Hugo Benitez-Silva & John Rust & Gunter Hitsch & Giorgio Pauletto & George Hall, 2000. "A Comparison Of Discrete And Parametric Methods For Continuous-State Dynamic Programming Problems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 24, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Boizot, Christine & Robin, Jean-Marc & Visser, Michael, 2001. "The Demand for Food Products: An Analysis of Interpurchase Times and Purchased Quantities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 391-419, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 2005. "Nonparametric identification of behavioral responses to counterfactual policy interventions in dynamic discrete decision processes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 393-398, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2008. "Behavioral Aspects of Price Setting, and Their Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 13754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andrew Sweeting, 2007. "Dynamic Product Repositioning in Differentiated Product Markets: The Case of Format Switching in the Commercial Radio Industry," NBER Working Papers 13522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro mira, 2007. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey," Working Papers tecipa-297, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lou, Weifang & Prentice, David & Yin, Xiangkang, 2008. "The Effects of Product Ageing on Demand: The Case of Digital Cameras," MPRA Paper 13407, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Berck & Jennifer Brown & Jeffrey Perloff & Sofia Villas-Boas, 2007. "Sales: Tests of Theories on Causality and Timing," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 1031, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Beach, Robert & Zhen, Chen, 2008. "Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Response to Media Coverage of Avian Influenza," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6750, Southern Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  7. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Stephan Lauermann, 2008. "Price Setting in a Decentralized Market and the Competitive Outcome," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_06, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Rebecca Hellerstein, 2007. "A framework for identifying the sources of local currency price stability with an empirical application," Staff Reports 287, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2009. "A Dynamic Oligopoly Game of the US Airline Industry: Estimation and Policy Experiments," MPRA Paper 16739, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Stephen Ryan & Catherine Tucker, 2006. "Heterogeneity and the Dynamics of Technology Adoption," Working Papers 06-26, NET Institute, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  12. Joao Macieira, 2007. "Extending the Frontier: A Structural Model of Investment and Technological Competition in the Supercomputer Industry," Working Papers e07-10, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2008. "Estimation of Random Coefficient Demand Models: Challenges, Difficulties and Warnings," NBER Working Papers 14080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Geoffrey Pofahl, 2009. "Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 245-266, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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