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Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior

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Author Info
Igal Hendel
Aviv Nevo

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Abstract

Temporary price reductions (sales) are common for many goods and naturally result in large increases in the quantity sold. Demand estimation based on temporary price reductions may mismeasure the long-run responsiveness to prices. In this paper we quantify the extent of the problem and assess its economic implications. We structurally estimate a dynamic model of consumer choice using two years of scanner data on the purchasing behavior of a panel of households. The results suggest that static demand estimates, which neglect dynamics, (i) overestimate own-price elasticities by 30 percent, (ii) underestimate cross-price elasticities by up to a factor of 5, and (iii) overestimate the substitution to the no-purchase or outside option by over 200 percent. This suggests that policy analysis based on static elasticity estimates will underestimate price-cost margins and underpredict the effects of mergers. Copyright The Econometric Society 2006.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00721.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 74 (2006)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 1637-1673
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:74:y:2006:i:6:p:1637-1673

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hugo Benitez-Silva & John Rust & Gunter Hitsch & Giorgio Pauletto & George Hall, 2000. "A Comparison Of Discrete And Parametric Methods For Continuous-State Dynamic Programming Problems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 24, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Boizot, Christine & Robin, Jean-Marc & Visser, Michael, 2001. "The Demand for Food Products: An Analysis of Interpurchase Times and Purchased Quantities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 391-419, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 2005. "Nonparametric identification of behavioral responses to counterfactual policy interventions in dynamic discrete decision processes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 393-398, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2008. "Behavioral Aspects of Price Setting, and Their Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 13754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andrew Sweeting, 2007. "Dynamic Product Repositioning in Differentiated Product Markets: The Case of Format Switching in the Commercial Radio Industry," NBER Working Papers 13522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro mira, 2007. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey," Working Papers tecipa-297, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lou, Weifang & Prentice, David & Yin, Xiangkang, 2008. "The Effects of Product Ageing on Demand: The Case of Digital Cameras," MPRA Paper 13407, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Berck & Jennifer Brown & Jeffrey Perloff & Sofia Villas-Boas, 2007. "Sales: Tests of Theories on Causality and Timing," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 1031, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Beach, Robert & Zhen, Chen, 2008. "Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Response to Media Coverage of Avian Influenza," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6750, Southern Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  7. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Stephan Lauermann, 2008. "Price Setting in a Decentralized Market and the Competitive Outcome," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_06, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Rebecca Hellerstein, 2007. "A framework for identifying the sources of local currency price stability with an empirical application," Staff Reports 287, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2009. "A Dynamic Oligopoly Game of the US Airline Industry: Estimation and Policy Experiments," MPRA Paper 16739, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Stephen Ryan & Catherine Tucker, 2006. "Heterogeneity and the Dynamics of Technology Adoption," Working Papers 06-26, NET Institute, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  12. Joao Macieira, 2007. "Extending the Frontier: A Structural Model of Investment and Technological Competition in the Supercomputer Industry," Working Papers e07-10, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2008. "Estimation of Random Coefficient Demand Models: Challenges, Difficulties and Warnings," NBER Working Papers 14080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Geoffrey Pofahl, 2009. "Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 245-266, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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