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Cartels Uncovered

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Author Info

  • Hyytinen, Ari

    (University of Jyväskylä)

  • Steen, Frode

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Toivanen, Otto

    (HECER & CEPR)

Abstract

How many cartels are there? The answer is important in assessing the efficiency of competition policy. We present a Hidden Markov Model that answers the question, taking into account that often we do not know whether a cartel exists in an industry or not. Our model identifies key policy parameters from data generated under different competition policy regimes and may be used with time-series or panel data. We take the model to data from a period of legal cartels - Finnish manufacturing industries 1951 - 1990. Our estimates suggest that by the end of the period, almost all industries were cartelized.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics in its series Discussion Paper Series in Economics with number 10/2010.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 16 Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2010_010

Contact details of provider:
Postal: NHH, Department of Economics, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Phone: +47 55 959 277
Fax: 5595 9100
Email:
Web page: http://www.nhh.no/sam/
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Related research

Keywords: Antitrust; cartel; competition; detection; Hidden Markov models; illegal; legal; leniency; policy; registry.;

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References

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  1. Wang, Peiming & Alba, Joseph D., 2006. "A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model with hidden Markov chain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 209-213, August.
  2. Joseph E. Harrington & Myong-Hun Chang, 2009. "Modeling the Birth and Death of Cartels with an Application to Evaluating Competition Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1400-1435, December.
  3. Robert H. Porter & J. Douglas Zona, 1999. "Ohio School Milk Markets: An Analysis of Bidding," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(2), pages 263-288, Summer.
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  5. Pesendorfer, Martin, 2000. "A Study of Collusion in First-Price Auctions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 381-411, July.
  6. Robert H. Porter & J. Douglas Zona, 1992. "Detection of Bid Rigging in Procurement Auctions," NBER Working Papers 4013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Myong-Hun Chang & Joseph E. Harrington, Jr., 2008. "The Impact of a Corporate Leniency Program on Antitrust Enforcement and Cartelization," Economics Working Paper Archive 548, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  8. Genesove, David & Mullin, Wallace P, 2001. "Rules, Communication and Collusion: Narrative Evidence from the Sugar Institute Case," CEPR Discussion Papers 2739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Robert H. Porter, 1983. "A Study of Cartel Stability: The Joint Executive Committee, 1880-1886," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 301-314, Autumn.
  10. Hay, George A & Kelley, Daniel, 1974. "An Empirical Survey of Price Fixing Conspiracies," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(1), pages 13-38, April.
  11. John Haltiwanger & Joseph E. Harrington Jr., 1991. "The Impact of Cyclical Demand Movements on Collusive Behavior," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(1), pages 89-106, Spring.
  12. Turner, Rolf, 2008. "Direct maximization of the likelihood of a hidden Markov model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(9), pages 4147-4160, May.
  13. David Genesove & Wallace P. Mullin, 1998. "Testing Static Oligopoly Models: Conduct and Cost in the Sugar Industry, 1890-1914," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(2), pages 355-377, Summer.
  14. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  15. Bradburd, Ralph M & Over, A Mead, Jr, 1982. "Organizational Costs, "Sticky Equilibria," and Critical Levels of Concentration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 50-58, February.
  16. Edward J Green & Robert H Porter, 1997. "Noncooperative Collusion Under Imperfect Price Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1147, David K. Levine.
  17. Joseph E. Harrington, Jr, 2006. "Modelling the Birth and Death of Cartels with an Application to Evaluating Antitrust Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 532, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  18. Altman, Rachel MacKay, 2007. "Mixed Hidden Markov Models: An Extension of the Hidden Markov Model to the Longitudinal Data Setting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 201-210, March.
  19. Jacquemin, Alexis & Nambu, Tsuruhiko & Dewez, Isabelle, 1981. "A Dynamic Analysis of Export Cartels: The Japanese Case," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 685-96, September.
  20. Slade, Margaret E., 1990. "Strategic pricing models and interpretation of price-war data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 524-537, May.
  21. Glenn Ellison, 1994. "Theories of Cartel Stability and the Joint Executive Committee," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 37-57, Spring.
  22. Lars-Hendrik R�ller & Frode Steen, 2006. "On the Workings of a Cartel: Evidence from the Norwegian Cement Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 321-338, March.
  23. Nathan H. Miller, 2009. "Strategic Leniency and Cartel Enforcement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 750-68, June.
  24. Brenner, Steffen, 2009. "An empirical study of the European corporate leniency program," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 639-645, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Lommerud, Kjell Erik & Meland, Frode & Straume, Odd Rune, 2008. "Mergers and capital flight in unionised oligopolies: Is there scope for a 'national champion' policy?," Working Papers in Economics 02/08, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.

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