IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dal/wpaper/daleconwp2010-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market Regimes, Sectorial Investments, and Time-Varying Risk Premiums

Author

Listed:
  • Peixin (Payton) Liu
  • Kuan Xu
  • Yonggan Zhao

    (Department of Economics, Dalhousie University)

Abstract

This paper extends the Fama and French (FF) three factor model in studying time- varying risk premiums of Sector Select Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) under a Markov regime-switching framework. First, we augment the original FF model to include three additional macro factors—market volatility, yield spread, and credit spread. Then, we extend this augmented FF model to a model with a Markov regime switching mechanism for bull, bear, and transition market regimes. We find all market regimes are persistent with the bull market regime being the most persistent and the bear market regime being the least persistent. Both the risk premiums of the Sector Select ETFs and their sensitivities to the risk factors are highly regime dependent. The regime-switching model has a superior performance in capturing the risk sensitivities of the Sector Select ETFs that would otherwise be missed by both the FF and the augmented FF models.

Suggested Citation

  • Peixin (Payton) Liu & Kuan Xu & Yonggan Zhao, 2010. "Market Regimes, Sectorial Investments, and Time-Varying Risk Premiums," Working Papers daleconwp2010-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dal:wpaper:daleconwp2010-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wp.economics.dal.ca/RePEc/dal/wpaper/DalEconWP2010-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Owen Lamont, 1998. "Earnings and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1563-1587, October.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
    4. Schwert, G. William, 1989. "Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 83-125, January.
    5. Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989. "A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
    6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    7. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
    8. Simon van Norden & Robert Vigfusson, 1996. "Regime-Switching Models, A guide to the Bank of Canada Gauss Procedures," Staff Working Papers 96-3, Bank of Canada.
    9. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    10. Lewellen, Jonathan, 1999. "The time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to-market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 5-43, October.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    12. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    13. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Schaefer, Stephen M. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2008. "Structural models of credit risk are useful: Evidence from hedge ratios on corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    16. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    17. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    18. Patrick Coggi & Bogdan Manescu, 2004. "A multifactor model of stock returns with endogenous regime switching," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-01, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    20. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    21. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    24. Qing Li & Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Sector Investment Growth Rates and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1637-1665, May.
    25. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    26. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Zhiping & Li, Gang & Zhao, Yonggan, 2014. "Time-consistent investment policies in Markovian markets: A case of mean–variance analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 293-316.
    2. Liu, Jia & Chen, Zhiping, 2018. "Time consistent multi-period robust risk measures and portfolio selection models with regime-switching," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 373-385.
    3. Elizabeth Fons & Paula Dawson & Jeffrey Yau & Xiao-jun Zeng & John Keane, 2019. "A novel dynamic asset allocation system using Feature Saliency Hidden Markov models for smart beta investing," Papers 1902.10849, arXiv.org.
    4. Damien Kunjal & Faeezah Peerbhai & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2021. "The performance of South African exchange traded funds under changing market conditions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 350-359, September.
    5. Edirisinghe, Chanaka & Sawicki, Julia & Zhao, Yonggan & Zhou, Jun, 2022. "Predicting credit rating changes conditional on economic strength," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    6. Leonard MacLean & Yonggan Zhao & William Ziemba, 2013. "Currency returns, market regimes and behavioral biases," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 249-269, May.
    7. Mohan Subbiah & Frank J Fabozzi, 2016. "Equity style allocation: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(3), pages 141-164, May.
    8. MacLean, Leonard C. & Zhao, Yonggan & Ziemba, William T., 2016. "Optimal capital growth with convex shortfall penalties," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65486, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    2. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    3. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    4. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
    5. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 520, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    6. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    7. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2001. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Huang, I-Hsiang, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the risk of value strategy: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 404-419, September.
    9. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    10. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    11. Bao, Jack & Hou, Kewei & Zhang, Shaojun, 2023. "Systematic default and return predictability in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 349-377.
    12. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    13. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Helmut Herwartz & Leonardo Morales-Arias, 2009. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of international stock return dynamics conditional on equilibrium pricing factors," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    15. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
    16. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    17. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
    18. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
    19. repec:mul:jdp901:doi:10.12831/73630:y:2013:i:1:p:11-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    21. Maio, Paulo, 2016. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-109.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dal:wpaper:daleconwp2010-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: James McNeil (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dedalca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.