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Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy

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  • Kathleen Dorsainvil

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    (Winston-Salem State University)

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    Abstract

    This paper develops a methodology to ascertain the determinants of growth in the Haitian economy. The methodology uses co-integration to identify those variables that can help explain economic activity, measured through GDP. This idea, pioneered by Hamilton and Perez- Quiros (1996), has the advantage of allowing for a smaller data set than the ones used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The results of this paper show that external and financial variables can provide Haitian policymakers with a good signaling device of the true performance of the economy. These variables are available before GDP, allowing policymakers to take preemptive measures to improve performance of the economy.

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    File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/num_anteriores/XV-1/05_KATHLEEN_DORSAINVIL.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by in its journal Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA.

    Volume (Year): XV (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January-June)
    Pages: 125-145

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    Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:15:y:2006:i:1:p:125-145

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    Related research

    Keywords: Granger causality; co-integration; economic growth;

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January.
    3. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
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