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The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Turkish Business Cycle

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  • Vasif ABİYEV
  • Reşat CEYLAN
  • Munise ILIKKAN ÖZGÜR

Abstract

In this study we investigated usefulness of oil price shocks in predicting switches between the growth phases of output in Turkey using monthly data for the period 1986-2014 by extending Markov Switching framework to include time-varying transition probabilities. We investigate the issue of whether the addition of various real oil price shocks to a univariate Markov Switching model for output can characterize the dynamics of business cycles better than the fixed transition probability version of Markov Switching model. The main results are summarized as follows. We find that although information about the lags of output growth and the information contained in transition probabilities combine to help identify which state of the economy has occurred in the TVTP model, oil price shocks are not the leading indicator of Turkish business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasif ABİYEV & Reşat CEYLAN & Munise ILIKKAN ÖZGÜR, 2015. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Turkish Business Cycle," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(25).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:150308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Markov Switching Regime; Oil Shocks; Leading Indicator.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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