Memory of Recessions
AbstractThis paper reviews the evidence on the effects of recessions on potential output. In contrast to the assumption in mainstream macroeconomic models that economic fluctuations do not change potential output paths, the evidence is that they do in the case of recessions. A model is proposed to explain this phenomenon, based on an analogy with water flows in porous media. Because of the discrete adjustments made by heterogeneous economic agents in such a world, potential output displays hysteresis with regard to aggregate demand shocks, and thus retains a memory of the shocks associated with recessions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2010-40.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Recessions; Permanent Effects; Hydraulic Keynesianism; Porous Media; Hysteresis;
Other versions of this item:
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
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- Doran, Justin & Fingleton, Bernard, 2012. "Economic shocks and growth: spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," MPRA Paper 47292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fingleton, Bernard & Palombi, Silvia, 2013. "Spatial panel data estimation, counterfactual predictions, and local economic resilience among British towns in the Victorian era," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 649-660.
- Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, 02.
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